生物能源发展对中国消费者福利的影响  

Impacts of Global Biofuel Development on Consumers' Welfare in China

作　　者：仇焕广[1] 井月[1] 杨军[1] 黄季焜[1] 廖绍攀 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院农业政策研究中心,北京100101 [2]中国科学院大学研究生院,北京100049

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2013年第11期144-149,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金优秀青年科学基金项目"区域农业发展与农产品市场政策"(编号:71222302)

摘　　要：为了保障能源供给安全和实现经济与环境的可持续发展,全球生物能源发展迅速,生物能源发展对不同消费者福利的影响也受到了社会各界的广泛的关注。本文综合采用"全球贸易分析模型"(GTAP)和"中国农业可持续发展决策支持系统"(CHINAGRO)模型,分析了不同情景下,生物能源发展对我国不同消费者福利的可能影响。研究结果表明,生物能源发展将引起农产品市场价格较大幅度上涨。如果美国、欧盟、巴西和中国等按照计划目标发展生物能源,将导致大米、小麦、玉米和大豆等主要粮食作物的市场价格分别增加3.5%,2.9%,12.3%和11%,油菜籽等油料作物价格上涨22.6%,蔬菜价格增加2.7%,猪禽产品价格增加2.2%。生物能源发展导致的农产品价格上涨不仅会导致消费者农产品消费量减少,还会导致消费者用于食品消费的支出显著上升。研究表明,生物能源将导致我国不同收入水平居民的大米和小麦消费量下降0.26%-1.17%,植物油消费下降0.78%-3.61%,水果、蔬菜以及畜禽产品的消费量也将出现不同程度的下降。研究结果也表明,生物能源发展将导致我国农村和城市居民的食物消费支出分别增加1.78%和1.05%左右。在不考虑农产品价格上升对收入影响的条件下,发展生物能源对消费者福利具有负面影响,低收入者尤其是贫困者的福利损失更大,这将加重贫困人群的生活负担。因此,建议政府积极采取措施减轻因发展生物能源对贫困消费者产生的负面影响。To ensure energy security and realize the sustainable development of economy and environment,many countries have established ambitious biofuel development plans.With the rapid development of biofuel,its potential social and economic impacts,especially the impacts on the welfare of different consumer,are drawing great concerns.This paper uses both “Global Trade Analysis Project” （GTAP） and “Decision Support System on China＇s Agricultural Sustainable Development” （CHINAGRO） models,analyzes the potential impacts of biofuel development on the welfare of different consumers in China under different biofuel development scenarios.The results show that,if the United State,EU,Brazil,and China fulfill their biofuel development targets in 2020,biofuel development will lead to large increase of agricultural prices in China.For example,prices of rice,wheat,maize and soybean prices increase by 3.5％,2.9％,12.3％,and 11％,respectively,and the prices of vegetable and pork will increase by 2.7％ and 2.2％ compared with the results if biofuel production will keep at the current level.The price increase due to biofuel development will not only reduce consumers＇ food consumption but also increase their expenditure of food consumption.The results of this study show that compared with the results without biofuel expansion,rice and wheat consumption of consumers under different income groups will decrease by 0.26％-1.17％,the consumption of vegetable will decrease by 0.78％-3.61％,and the consumption demand of other agricultural commodities will also decline at various magnitudes.The results also show that rural and urban consumers＇ food expenditure under biofuel development will increase by 1.78％ and 1.05％.If the income effect of biofuel development from the production side is not included,the negative impacts of biofuel development on consumers＇ welfare are more prominent for low-income people.Therefore,the government needs to take measures to reduce the negative influence of biofuel development

关 键 词：生物能源 食品消费 消费者福利 一般均衡模型 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]