基于市场响应的浙江省林业碳汇经营发展趋势模拟研究  

Simulation of the Development Trend of Zhejiang Forestry Carbon Sequestration Management Based on Carbon Market Responses

作　　者：龙飞[1] 沈月琴[1] 翁贞瑶[1] 王静[1] 郑晓冬[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江农林大学经济管理学院,杭州311300

出　　处：《林业资源管理》2013年第5期113-119,共7页Forest Resources Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71073148);教育部人文社会科学规划基金项目(11YJAZH065);浙江省自然科学基金项目(LY12G03006);浙江省人文社科重点研究基地重大招标项目支撑子项目(RWSKZD01-2012ZB1);浙江省农民发展研究中心预研招标项目(XNM-Z201207)

摘　　要：通过对浙江省林业碳汇交易市场发展的响应状况进行实证调研与理论分析,构建了一个基于市场响应的碳交易价格转化系数模型,并以此计算出不同碳交易价格情景下浙江省林业碳汇经营的转化率水平,进而对浙江省林业碳汇经营发展趋势进行了模拟研究。结论表明:浙江省未来20年的碳交易价格将在目前110元的基础上上升至1 100元,而随着碳交易价格的持续上升,作为理性的林业经营主体,将不断实现由传统林业经营向碳汇林业经营的转化,在碳交易价格达到1 100元时,转化率将达到0.875的水平。最后针对目前制约浙江省林业碳汇交易市场发展的相关因素进行了探讨与阐释。This paper constructs a carbon transaction price conversion coefficient model based on market responses through theoretical research and empirical analysis of the response status of Zhejiang carbon market development,calculates the conversion rate of Zhejiang traditional forestry management into forestry carbon sequestation management at different carbon prices and then carries out a simulation of the development trend of Zhejiang forestry management based on carbon market responses. The results show that carbon price of Zhejiang carbon market will rise from the current 110 yuan to 1100yuan in future 20 years. With the continuous rise in carbon price,rational forestry management subject will continue to realize the conversion from traditional forestry management to forestry carbon sequestration management. When carbon price reaches 1100 yuan level,the conversion rate will achieve0. 875. This paper further discuses and explains the relevant factors restricting the development of Zhejiang carbon market.

关 键 词：市场响应 林业碳汇经营 发展趋势 模拟 

分 类 号：F326.2[经济管理—产业经济] X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]