水环境承载力约束下的城市经济规模量化研究  

A Quantitative Study of Urban Economic Scale Constrained by Water Environmental Carrying Capacity

作　　者：刘臣辉[1] 申雨桐 周明耀[2] 徐海钢 余龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]扬州大学环境科学与工程学院,江苏扬州225127 [2]扬州大学水利科学与工程学院,江苏扬州225009

出　　处：《自然资源学报》2013年第11期1903-1910,共8页Journal of Natural Resources

基　　金：江苏省自然科学基金重点项目(BK2010041);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201201005)

摘　　要：论文提出了以地区生产总值（GDP）表征的水环境承载力定量计算模型，以扬州市为例，选取COD作为污染控制因子，进行实例计算。通过对模型参数的灵敏度分析，确定不同参数影响程度，找出影响水环境承载力的主要制约因子；采用区间估计理论，评估模型计算结果的可靠性；提出对于确定的经济发展目标，排放强度控制线模型。结果表明，考虑污染减排政策干预的因素，扬州市目标年水环境承载力（以GDP表征）可达8372×10^8元，在90％的置信度水平上，其置信区间为7881×10^8-9030×10^8元；在总量控制目标确定的条件下，水环境承载力主要制约因子为污染物排放强度和第三产业比例；如果该区域经济目标定为5070×10^8元，则单位工业增加值COD排放强度不得大于0．69kg／10^4元。Environmental carrying capacity is an important constraint to regional sustainable development. It is the thresholds of the population size and economic scale that make the system of a regional environment support. In this article, a new method is proposed to study the threshold of urban economic scale constrained by water environmental carrying capacity. Regional water environmental carrying capacity can be quantitatively represented by the value of Gross Domestic Product （GDP）, if the population size can be predictable in this region. This new method is primarily based on the Water Environmental Threshold Value Model, which is proposed for the first time in this article, as well as some statistical techniques. In this mathematical model, the threshold value of GDP constrained by water environmental carrying capacity at a regional level is a function of five independent variables： G =[（P ＋ C） × k1 ＋ 0.1W1]/[k1 × （1 - RT）], where G denotes the threshold value of GDP at a regional level, P is the value-added in primary, C is the value-added in construction, W1 is the goal of the total amount control of industrial pollutants, RT is the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP, and k1 is the amount of pollutant emissions per 10^4 yuan of industrial value-added. The statistical methods applied here include regression analysis, which is used for the computation of the parameters P, C, W1, R1, k1, and interval estimation, which is used for the analysis of the sensitivity and reliability of the model. Yangzhou City is taken as a case to compute the economic scale constrained by the water environmental carrying capacity in 2015. COD is chosen as a total amount control factor （COD≤56845 t/a）. The values of P, C, Wz, Rr, and kl are 229.02× 10^8 yuan, 228.45×10^8 yuan, 18132 t, 39%, and 0.39 （1.38） kg/104 yuan per unit of industrial value-added, respectively. The result of computation indicates that： 1） Taking into account the continuity of the policy of pollutant reduction （L =0.39

关 键 词：环境科学 水环境承载力 排放强度 可持续发展 

分 类 号：X26[环境科学与工程—环境科学]