青藏高原农牧区干旱灾害风险分析  

Drought Disaster Risk Analysis of Tibetan Plateau

作　　者：赵志龙[1] 张镱锂[2] 刘峰贵[1,2] 张海峰[1] 周强[1] 刘佩[1] 邹新华[1] 

机构地区：[1]青海师范大学生命与地理科学学院,青海西宁810008 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所,北京100101

出　　处：《山地学报》2013年第6期672-684,共13页Mountain Research

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(2010CB951704);国家自然科学基金项目(40761003);中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDB03030501)~~

摘　　要：随着全球气候变化，青藏高原的干旱化趋势愈加显现。根据1951—2010年气象灾害统计数据，利用GIS技术与自然灾害风险分析模型，基于2010年承险体脆弱性断面数据，分析了青藏高原农牧区210个县的干旱灾害风险要素空间分布特点，并对青藏高原农牧区进行了干旱灾害风险程度分区。研究表明：1．青藏高原农牧区旱灾中等以上（0．24～1．oo）风险等级的区域面积总计为103．26×10km2，占农牧区总面积的63％。2．旱灾风险高值中心（0．44—1．00）总面积9．63×10 km2，其中，西藏自治区占20％，青海省占77％，甘肃省占3％。3．旱灾风险低值区（0．00—0．i5）总面积54．49×10 km2，其中，西藏自治区占52％，青海省占6％，云南省占1％，四川省占35％，甘肃省占1％，新疆自治区占5％。因此，青藏高原农牧区旱灾防御形势严峻。With the global climate change, the aridification of Tibetan Plateau is becoming more and more obvious. Based on the 1951--2010 meteorological disaster statistical data and the vulnerability data of bearing body in 2010, and with the GIS technology and the natural disaster risk analysis model, this study comprehensively analyzed the spatial distribution of drought disaster risk factors for agricultural and pastoral areas within the Tibetan Plateau, and then used natural crack method to make drought disaster risk zoning. The results showed：l. The area with drought disaster risk of above medium level （0.24 ~ 1.00） is 103.26 x 104 km2 ,accounting for 63% of the total agricuhur- al and pastoral areas;2. The area of highest value （0.44 ~ 1.00） center of drought disaster risk is 9.63 x 104 km2, and the area of Tibetan Autonomous Region, Qinghai Province and Gansu Province account for 20% , 77% and 3% of the total highest value center area each respectively;3. The area of lowest value （0.00 ~ 0.15 ） center of drought disaster risk is 54.49 x 104 km2, and the area of Tibetan Autonomous Region, Qinghai Province, Yunnan Province, Sichuan Province, Gansu Province and Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region account for 52%, 6%, 1%, 35%, 1% and 5% respectively of the total lowest value center area each. So the situation of drought disaster for

关 键 词：青藏高原 历史数据 干旱 灾害 风险 

分 类 号：P46[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X4[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]