基于专利存续期的专利价值研究——一个基于收益服从指数分布假设的模型重构  

The Patent Value Based on Renewal Periods: A Model Reconstruction with the Hypothesis of Exponentially Distributed Return

作　　者：张古鹏[1] 陈向东[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国科学院研究生院管理学院,北京100190 [2]北京航空航天大学经济管理学院,北京100191

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2013年第4期142-149,共8页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上资助项目(71173009)

摘　　要：本文从专利存续期出发,基于收益的指数分布特征重新构建了专利价值模型,并基于该模型计算了中国发明专利的货币价值,结果显示,增加研发人员投入,研发单位问进行合作研发,研发单位拥有较大的研发规模都有助于提高专利价值.我们首先计算了约11万项已失效专利的总价值,结果显示,专利价值随专利存续期长度的增加而增加.专利的平均价值远大于样本中专利价值的中位数,这说明大部分专利的价值处于极低水平,只有极少部分专利价值极高.中国本土申请的专利的平均价值最低,而日本在中国申请的专利平均价值最高.然后,又计算了中国约45万项未失效发明专利的远期价值,结果显示,专利远期价值的时间曲线呈驼峰形状,即专利远期价值首先随时间递减,专利授权后5年左右开始递增,授权后11年左右又呈递减趋势;专利刚被授权时的远期价值最高,一般介于15～40万元人民币之间;中国本土申请的专利的远期价值在所有国籍申请人当中是最低的,而电信和信息技术领域专利的远期价值在所有技术领域中是最高的.Patent value is an important topic in economic and management research for several reasons. It informs policy because it is a measure of the reward that the patent system provides inventors, and it helps to account for the value of intangibles and measure the productivity and quality of R＆D. Patents have their own lifecycles in terms of legal protection. Many international scholars focus more on the patent life or the legal protection period based on the patent renewal information which isan important implication for patent value. The framework of patent values based on renewal information was initially proposed by Pakes and Schankerman （1984）. While patent owners could achieve exclusive benefits from their own patents as long as patent rights exist, it is frequently not easy to adopt patents for real production or to license patent rights for successful returns. Generally, if the expected benefit is less than the annual renewal fee the patent owner will stop paying the annual renewal fee, and the patent rights will naturally expire. This process implies that renewal decisions or renewal statuses of patent owners reflect information about their expected benefits from their patents in the near future. Existing studies estimate patent value with the hypothesis that patent＇s initial return distributes log normally with the reason that the distribution of patent life is closer to normal distribution. However, we find theoretical and empirical evidence that the exponential distribution might better fit the distribution of patent＇s initial return. Therefore, we rebuild the renewal period based patent value model by assuming the initial return of patent is exponentially distributed. Many potential impact factors of patent value are also considered in the model. The potential impact factors include： （ 1 ） human resources input, measured by the number of inventors of patent, （2） joint research behavior, measured by the number of applicants, （ 3 ） scale of applicants, measured by the number of pat

关 键 词：专利 专利价值 远期价值 研发质量 存续期 

分 类 号：F273[经济管理—企业管理]