龙泉驿地区降水的多尺度特征及集中性研究  

A Study on Multiscale Precipitation Characteristics and Concentration in Longquanyi

作　　者：何劲夫[1] 肖天贵[1] 刘碧全 杨天然 毛世杰 

机构地区：[1]成都信息工程学院大气科学学院,四川成都610225 [2]成都市龙泉驿气象局,四川成都610100

出　　处：《成都信息工程学院学报》2013年第5期520-529,共10页Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology

基　　金：973计划资助项目(2013CB733206);地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家重点实验室基金资助项目(SKLGP2012K007);四川省应用基础研究计划资助项目(2013JY0063)

摘　　要：针对强降水是龙泉驿地区滑坡泥石流等地质灾害产生的重要诱因的问题，通过趋势分析法、Morlet小波分析方法、统计分析等分析了龙泉驿地区降水整体趋势，年、季降水量及降水日数的多尺度变化特征，及月、旬、日降水的集中性特征。结果表明，龙泉驿地区年季降水量总体呈下降趋势，但2006年后降水量开始显示出增加趋势。年降水量显示出3年、9年左右的准周期震荡，降水13数周期震荡则比较复杂。2008年以后龙泉驿地区年、季降水处于丰水期，降水集中性显著，降水强度有增大趋势，夏秋季有发生地质灾害的可能性。可诱发龙泉驿地区地质灾害的主要降水时段和降水比重极值时段为7、8月，1980年代初中期降水集中性主要出现在7月份，1980年代中后期至2000年代主要出现在8月份。19--25旬是降水的集中性时段，而日降水高峰时段出现在0：00～7：00时段尤其是2：00～5：00时段。For Long Quanyi region geological hazard point increase in recent years, the precipitation is the most im- portant cause geological disasters. By trend analysis method, the Morlet wavelet analysis method, statistical analysis, etc. Analyzes the Long Quanyi area precipitation overall trends, annual and seasonal precipitation and precipitation days of multi-scale characteristics, and the concentration characteristics of monthly, ten-day and daily precipitation. The research results show that Long Quanyi overall declining in year season precipitation but increasing trend after 2006. Annual precipitation shows that 3 years, 9 years quasi-periodic oscillation, rainy days cycle shocks is more complicated. After 2008 years, Long Quanyi region Annual and seasonal precipitation in the wet period, precipitation concentration significantly, precipitation intensity has increased trend, summer and autumn has possibility of geologi- cal disasters. Possible introduce Long Quanyi proportion of regional geological disasters of precipitation and precipita- tion especially in July and August. During the 1980 s precipitation mainly concentrate in July, and in August from 1980 s to 2000 s in August. 19-25 ten-day is precipitation concentration period, and peak time of daily precipitation in 0： 00 - 7： 00 period especially 2： 00 - 5： 00 period.

关 键 词：大气科学 降水量 多尺度特征 集中度 地质灾害 龙泉驿地区 龙泉山 

分 类 号：P426.61[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]