中医医院门诊工作量的季节性分析及预测研究  

Seasonal Analysis and Forecasting Research of Outpatient Visits in Traditional Chinese Medicine Hospital

作　　者：张珊珊[1] 尚莉丽[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽中医药大学第一附属医院临床教学办公室,合肥230031

出　　处：《数理医药学杂志》2013年第6期675-678,共4页Journal of Mathematical Medicine

基　　金：安徽中医药大学第一附属医院临床教学研究项目(2011lcjy004);安徽中医药大学临床科学研究基金项目(2010LC-014A)资助

摘　　要：门诊量的准确预测可以更好的为门诊医疗资源的有效配置提供决策支持,合理安排门诊资源可大为降低病患的就诊难度,增加病患的就诊意愿,同时也可在一定程度上提高医院的效益。提出一种混合人工智能模型对我院门诊量进行预测研究,将遗传算法与时间序列方法相结合,克服以往单一预测方法所具有的局限性,提高预测精度。最后,通过一个实例对所提方法进行验证,结果表明,本文所给模型具有较高的预测精度。Accurate forecasting of outpatient visits in decision-making and planning for the future and is the foundation for greater and better utilization of resources and increased levels of outpatient care. Also, it can improve the profit of the hospital. This study presents a hybrid artificial intelligence model to forecasting the outpatient visits, combining Genetic algorithm and time series method, overcome the lack of using one forecasting method, improve the forecasting accuracy. Finally, an example is used to validate the proposed method. Example shows that this model has higher prediction accuracy.

关 键 词：人工智能 遗传算法 时间序列 门诊量 预测 

分 类 号：R2-03[医药卫生—中医学]