感染性腹泻发病人数与气象因素的相关性研究  

Correlation between meteorological factors and infectious diarrhea in a district of Beijing

作　　者：汪静[1] 胥美美[2] 莫运政[3] 潘小川[2] 

机构地区：[1]北京市东城区疾病预防控制中心,北京100050 [2]北京大学公共卫生学院 [3]北京大学临床研究所

出　　处：《环境与健康杂志》2013年第11期991-995,共5页Journal of Environment and Health

摘　　要：目的探讨北京市某地区感染性腹泻发病人数与气象因素的相关关系。方法收集2006-2011年北京市东城区南片地区感染性腹泻发病资料、同期北京市气象资料。在描述性分析、圆形分布和相关分析的基础上，采用时间序列分析方法的广义相加模型定量分析气象因素对发病人数的影响。结果该地区2006-2011年感染性腹泻发病人数总体呈逐年下降趋势，发病流行期为3月11日-12月15日。发病人数与日均气温、相对湿度、降水量呈正相关（P〈0．01），与气压呈负相关（P〈0．01）。气温在8．5～25．5℃时，气温变化对发病的影响在滞后30d内均有统计学意义（P〈0．01），对当天影响最大，每上升1℃，发病人数增加9．36％[超额危险度（En）95％CI：8．51％～10．21％]。相对湿度变化对发病的影响在滞后30d内亦有统计学意义（P〈0．01），发病人数随相对湿度上升而增加。结论该地区感染性腹泻发病人数与气温高、相对湿度大、降水增大、气压低等因素有关。Objective To explore the relationship between the meteorological factors and the incidence of infectious diarrhea. Methods The data of infectious diarrhea in the southern part of Dongcheng district in Beijing and the meteorological data of Beijing from 2006 to 2011 were collected. Time series analysis （generalized additive model） was used to analyze the influence of meteorological factors on infectious diarrhea based on the descriptive analysis,circular distribution and simple correlation analysis. Results The incidence of infectious diarrhea presented a downward trend, its epidemic period was from March 11 to December 15. The high temperature,high relative humidity and heavy rainfall could lead to high incidence of the disease; The higher atmospheric pressure, the lower disease incidence was. When the temperature was between 8.5 to 25.5 ℃, it was found that the number of infectious diarrhea patients would increase 9.36% with 1 ℃ increase of the temperature （95%CI： 8.51%-10.21%,P〈0.01）. The number of infectious diarrhea could increase with the increase of relative humidity. Conclusion In the present study, a relationship was seen between infectious diarrhea and higher temperature, higher relative humidity, higher rainfall and lower atmospheric pressure.

关 键 词：气象因素 感染性腹泻 圆形分布 时间序列分析 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]