基于CA方法的航空物流市场演化模型设计  

Designing the Evolution Model of Aviation Logistics Market with Cellular Automata

作　　者：栾笑天[1,2] 吴桐水[3] 寇勇刚 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京210016 [2]中国民航管理干部学院,北京100102 [3]中国民航大学,天津300300 [4]深圳航空公司,深圳518000

出　　处：《复杂系统与复杂性科学》2013年第4期31-40,共10页Complex Systems and Complexity Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金委员会与中国民用航空局联合资助项目(U1233126)

摘　　要：为研究航空物流市场的发展过程与演化特征,基于元胞自动机模型,考虑航空物流相关企业的成本水平、点线处理能力、物流集中度建立了航空物流市场发展生命阶段模型和细分市场特征模型。经过反复试验,选择合适的参数,得到航空物流市场的演化阶段与细分市场特征的模拟结果。结果表明:航空物流市场发展经历了发展初期、过渡期、成熟期3个阶段;发展初期市场盈利水平受成本因素影响显著;过渡期市场盈利水平主要受点线处理能力影响;成熟期市场盈利水平主要受物流集中度影响;细分市场模型能够有效模拟各物流细分市场受不同阶段影响因素的敏感度。To study the development and evolution characteristics of the air logistics market, con- sidering the level of air logistics enterprisers cost, point＇line capacity and logistics concentra- tion, air logistics market development life cycle model and the market segment feature model are established based on cellular automata. After repetitive experiments, we choose the appropriate parameters and got the simulation results of evolution of the aviation logistics market and market segment characteristics. The results prove that air logistics market development has experienced three stages-the development initial period, the transition period and mature period. Market prof- itability is influenced by the cost factor in the initial period of development. Transition market profit level is mainly affected by the point＇line capacity. Mature market profit level is mainly af- fected by the concentration of logistics. Subdividing the market model can effectively simulate the sensi- tivity of the logistics segment market which is influenced by different cycle factors.

关 键 词：航空物流 生命阶段 细分市场 模型设计 元胞自动机 

分 类 号：F562[经济管理—产业经济] F224