不同级数展开的半不变量法概率潮流计算比较分析  

Comparison of probabilistic load flow calculation based on cumulant method among different series expansions

作　　者：郭效军[1] 蔡德福[2] 

机构地区：[1]国电南京自动化股份有限公司,江苏南京210032 [2]华中科技大学强电磁工程与新技术国家重点实验室.湖北武汉430074

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2013年第12期85-90,110,共7页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2009CB219701);国家高技术研究发展计划(863计划)资助项目(2011AA05A101);国家自然科学基金资助项目(50937002)~~

摘　　要：半不变量法概率潮流能快速求出系统状态变量的分布。该方法在系统基准运行点进行线性化,波动性强的风电和光伏发电的大规模并网会增强系统功率的波动强度,而且不同级数展开适用于不同的变量分布类型。以含风电/光伏发电的电力系统为分析对象,以蒙特卡罗法计算结果为参考值,以输出随机变量累积分布的方差和的根均值为评价指标,比较分析了各种输入随机变量和不同级数展开下半不变量法概率潮流计算结果的准确性,并阐述了其误差产生机理。PLF-CM（Probabilistic Load Flow calculation based on Cumulant Method） performs linearization at the operating point of power system to quiokly obtain the distribution of system state variables. Large-scale integration of wind power and photovoltaic power enhances the variation of power system load flow and different series expansions are suitable for different distribution types of system state variable. With a power system with wind/photovoltaic power as the analysis object,the calculative results by Monte Carlo method as the references and the average root mean square of the cumulative distribution of output random variable as the evaluation index,the accuracy of PLF-CM are compared among various input random variables and different series expansions, and the causes of its errors are analyzed.

关 键 词：半不变量法 蒙特卡罗法 概率潮流 级数展开 风电 光伏发电 

分 类 号：TM711[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]