基于系统动力学视角的生态安全可接受风险研究  

An Optimized Man-made Disasters Risk-cybernetic Model

作　　者：肖忠海[1] 赖小东[2] 

机构地区：[1]成都理工大学核技术与自动化学院工业工程系,四川成都610059 [2]同济大学经济与管理学院,上海200092

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2013年第23期115-120,共6页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：四川高校科研创新团队建设计划(13TD0009)

摘　　要：与传统概率理论处理生态灾害风险特性不同,是从系统动力学的角度出发,构建生态灾害控制两阶段模型,分别从开环策略与闭环策略阐述了两点:对生态灾害风险事故损失率估计越精确,造成生态灾害的损失额越小;要使生态灾害接近于可接受风险标准并趋于稳定,就必须持续增加资源投入,不断降低生态灾害发生的概率.说明了随着经济体的功能与结构的复杂化,生态灾害可接受风险趋于稳定的情况下,初级控制与次级控制的资金投入量要持续增长.Unlike the traditional probability theory, this thesis, based on cybernetics driving forces, two-phrase model is constructed .This article has illustrated from open-loop strategy and closee-loop tactics two things： the more accurate on ecological disasters,the smaller losses of ecological disaster; the stable standard of acceptable risk must continue to increase resources and investment and to lower the probability of ecological disasters. And the increasing econ- omy must make primary control and secondary control of the amount of capital investment sustain development to stablize ecological disaster acceptable risk standard.

关 键 词：系统动力学 可接受风险 生态安全 策略 

分 类 号：X171[环境科学与工程—环境科学]