中国—东盟FTA的贸易结构效应——基于2000～2010年间制造业面板数据的经验分析  

The Trade Structure Effect of China-ASEAN FTA： An Empirical Analysis based on Manufacturing Panel Data of 2000 - 2010

作　　者：余振[1] 葛伟[1] 陈继勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《经济管理》2013年第12期1-10,共10页Business and Management Journal ( BMJ )

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"中国-东盟自由贸易区中的产业集聚与区域协调发展研究"(10CGJ017);教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地研究项目"中国参与东盟经济一体化问题研究"(13CEDR0002);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目"深度经济一体化;产业集聚与区域协调发展"(20100034)

摘　　要：目前,中国—东盟FTA表现出越来越明显的贸易结构效应,对于区域内贸易利益的分配产生了日益重要的影响。本文在研究制造业贸易结构决定因素的基础上,通过GMM方法对中国—东盟FTA与中国制造业贸易结构的关系做实证分析。实证结果显示,中国—东盟FTA区域内部壁垒强化了中国贸易结构对比较优势的反应,即内部关税的下降,有利于中国具有比较优势产业的产品生产和出口;优惠幅度强化了规模报酬递增和成本需求关系的产业对中国市场潜力的反应,即区域内外关税差异越大,中国的大市场和良好工业基础对产业吸引力越大,越有利于这些产业的出口。因此,中国在推动该自贸区深入发展过程中,需要采取更多的利益协调政策。Using manufacturing industry data of China and five major ASEAN counties from 2000 to 2010,this paper analyses the impact of CAFTA on Chinese export structure and clarifies the industrial bias of CAFYA trade effect. Based on these,this paper analyses its implications on China＇ s future moves in the development of China- ASEAN FTA （CAFTA）. Actually,the implementation of FTA strategy is a new attempt in China＇ s mutually beneficial opening strategy. In 2002, China signed the Framework Agreement on Comprehensive Economic Co-operation with 10 ASEAN countries and this symbolizes the formal initiation of CAFTA. As the first and so far the biggest FTA that China has signed, CAFTA has brought with it some profound impact on the industrial division. In the meantime that it stimulates trade expansion between China and ASEAN,it also brings about some changes in the trade structures of both China and the ASEAN countries which leads to the so called ＂industrial bias of trade structure＂ issue. This issue will influence the distribution of trade benefits among China and ASEAN countries as well as different industries inside China. At the same time, if perceived in a longer-term,it will exert some impact on the healthy and stable operation of CAFTA. According to the theoretical analysis, we can see that the trade structure of a country is influenced by many factors such as resource endowments, factor intensity of industries, correlation between the upstream and downstream of an industry and etc. On the basis of analyzing determinant factors of trade structure in manufacturing industries, this paper conducts empirical analysis on the relationship between CAFFA and the trade structure of Chinese manufacturing industry with GMM methodology. The empirical results show that the internal barrier within CAFTA region strengthens the response of industries with increasing returns to scale and cost-demand linkage to the market potential in China. This means that fall in internal tariff rate is beneficial for the production a

关 键 词：中国 东盟 FTA 贸易结构 GMM 

分 类 号：F744[经济管理—国际贸易]