大型机场地面集疏运需求预测方法研究  

Research on Ground Transportation Demand Forecast for Large Airport

作　　者：李冬梅[1,2] 李文权[1] 范东涛[2] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学,交通学院,南京210096 [2]江苏省交通规划设计院股份有限公司,南京210005

出　　处：《交通运输工程与信息学报》2013年第4期87-93,共7页Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)资助项目(2012CB725402);江苏省基础研究计划(Bk2011084)

摘　　要：机场地面集疏运系统是机场发展的重要支撑,交通需求预测是进行机场集疏运交通规划的前提。笔者以四阶段预测的基本原理为基础,结合机场集疏运需求特点,对预测的整体思路、方法、步骤和内容等进行详细分析,优化调整出行分布、方式划分预测模型,并以南京禄口国际机场为实例进行了预测。研究成果对国内同类大型机场的集疏运需求预测具有借鉴和参考价值。Ground transportation system is an important support for airport transportation system, and the traffic demand forecast is the premise for airport transportation planning. Combined with the basic principle of the four-step method of traffic planning, this paper analyses the methodology, process and content in detail on bow to forecast the ground traffic demand, and adjusts the trip-distribution and mode-split forecast model. Taking Nanjing Lukou international airport as anexample, the transportation demand was forecasted. This rearchcould be used for el reference to the similar airport and to the similar research.

关 键 词：集疏运 四阶段法 需求预测 

分 类 号：TU248.6[建筑科学—建筑设计及理论]