2013年国内外稻米市场形势分析及展望  

Paddy and Rice Markets at Home and Abroad in 2013 and Their Prospects

作　　者：彭超[1] 洪略 张欢[3] 

机构地区：[1]农业部农村经济研究中心,北京100810 [2]中国人民大学农业与农村发展学院,北京100872 [3]农业部信息中心,北京100125

出　　处：《农业展望》2013年第11期13-18,共6页Agricultural Outlook

摘　　要：2013年1—10月,中国稻谷市场维持稳中略跌态势,南方籼米市场受到进口和"镉超标"事件双重影响,持续疲软。国际米价在恢复性上涨后出现持续下跌,涨跌的诱因是主要贸易国政策调整。2013年1—8月中国稻米出口增加、进口减少。预计后市,国内稻谷有望再获丰收,稻谷最低收购价政策将面临考验,大米价格将出现分化,粳稻期货上市将为市场对粮源调节起决定性作用创造条件。短期内,国际大米价格将以弱势运行为主。China＇s paddy and rice markets remained stable with slightly down trend in Jan-Oct 2013, southern indica rice market continued weak under double impact of import and ＂excessive cadmium＂ event. International rice price continued to decline after rehabilitation rise, which was due to policy adjustments of main trading countries. From Jan. to Aug. in 2013, exports of China＇ s paddy and rice increased, while imports decreased. Looking forward to the future, domestic paddy and rice may have a bumper harvest again, minimum purchase price policy of paddy and rice will be challenged, rice price will be differential. Rice futures listed on the market will bring creational conditions for market to play a decisive role in regulating grain resources. International rice price will maily ramain weak run in a short time.

关 键 词：稻米 市场形势 展望 

分 类 号：F313.7[经济管理—产业经济]