时变条件下高堆石坝施工度汛协商决策的演化分析模型  

Negotiation decision evolutionary analysis of high rock-fill dam construction during flood period on time-varying

作　　者：刘潋[1] 胡志根[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《水利学报》2013年第11期1359-1365,共7页Journal of Hydraulic Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51279137;51079115)

摘　　要：大坝施工度汛方案的选择与坝体填筑进度的计划及控制密切相关。本文针对高堆石坝填筑施工过程的挡水和过水的特点,以坝前水位的随机性和坝体挡水高程的时变性描述施工度汛风险。结合协商者的风险偏好和利益导向,引入承包商与业主在不同度汛方案下的效益函数,运用微分对策建立时变条件下高堆石坝施工度汛协商决策演化模型,给出了协商机制下度汛决策行为的动态演化过程及其决策路径和坝体填筑高程的变化特征。实例计算结果表明决策演化模型下的坝体填筑上升高度与实际工程接近,工期与实际工程相符,验证了该模型的可行性与有效性,对高堆石坝度汛风险决策与控制具有理论意义和参考价值。Scheme of dam construction during flood is intimately associated with the dam filling schedule planning and controlling. According to the characteristics of water retaining and overtopping in high rock-fill dam construction process, randomness of flood level in front of dam and time variation of water re- taining height are used to describe risk during flood period. Benefit functions of contractor and owner in dif- ferent schedule are introduced combined with risk preference and interest orientation. Negotiation decision evolutionary model of high rock-fill dam construction during flood period on time-varying is built by using differential game theory. Dynamic evolution process of decision behavior under the negotiation mechanism is given, as well as the path of decision and the change of filling height. The case result shows the rising height and construction period of decision evolutionary model agree well the actual project, which verifies the feasibility and effectiveness of the model. It is of greater theoretical significance and reference value to risk decision and control for high rock-fill dam construction during flood period.

关 键 词：高堆石坝 施工度汛 协商 决策演化 微分对策 

分 类 号：TV511[水利工程—水利水电工程]