我国粮食需求预测  

China's Grain Demand Forecast

作　　者：贾伟[1] 秦富[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业经济与发展研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《中国食物与营养》2013年第11期40-44,共5页Food and Nutrition in China

摘　　要：利用时间序列模型预测未来一定时期中国农村和城镇居民人均食物消费,再结合城镇化、人口增长、料肉比等相关数据,对中国粮食总需求进行预测。研究结果显示,我国粮食总需求呈现出增加趋势,截至2020年,粮食总需求量为60 390.93万t,口粮消费量将减少,饲用粮消费量将持续增加,且大约在2015年,饲用粮消费量将超过口粮,两者在2020年将分别达到27 470.22万t、18 415.71万t;到2020年城镇居民口粮和饲用粮消费量均将超过农村居民。本文根据此研究结果,提出相关的政策建议。By Time Series Model,the paper predicted China＇s grain demand in the future on the base of analyzing China rural and urban residents major food consumption and taking into account of the data of urbanization,population growth,feed conversion.The results showed that China＇s grain demand would be an increasing trend.China total grain demand would get to 603 909 300t in 2020.Ration grain consumption would reduce,but feed grain consumption would increase.Feed grain consumption rations would exceed ration consumption in 2015,ration and feed grain would respectively reach 274 702 200t and 184 157 100t in 2020.Urban residents would consume rations and feed grain more than rural residents in 2020.According to results,the paper put forward relevant policy recommendations.

关 键 词：消费结构变动 食物消费 粮食需求预测 

分 类 号：F323.7[经济管理—产业经济]