欧盟碳排放平衡及政策转变  

The Balance of EU Emission Trading System and Policy Adjustment

作　　者：肖艳[1,2] 张汉林[2] 

机构地区：[1]中南林业科技大学,长沙410004 [2]对外经济贸易大学中国世界贸易组织研究院,北京100029

出　　处：《林业经济》2013年第11期46-55,共10页Forestry Economics

基　　金：教育部规划基金项目“中国与中低收入发展中国家经贸合作新战略研究”(编号:13YJAZH105);中南林业科技大学青年基金文科招标项目“森林碳汇与全球气候谈判的关系性及对中国林业发展战略的影响”(编号:2011ZB002);湖南省情决策与决策咨询研究课题“加快大湘南国家级承接产业转移示范区建设研究”(编号:2013ZZ18)

摘　　要：针对欧盟将LULUCF纳入排放交易体系这一制度上的最新变动，文章试图探讨该政策变化的实质。根据对欧盟第一和第二阶段之排放信用额度的市场供给与需求统计分析，结合欧盟排放计划安排，对第三阶段的排放信用额度的市场供需状况进行了预测；发现未将LULUCF项目纳人碳排放交易体系的情况下，2005N2015年间欧盟碳排放交易市场呈现出排放信用额度供大于求的状况，但转折点将出现在2016年后，至此供给小于需求的逆转将发生；若自2020年起正式将LULUCF项目纳入碳排放交易体系，并同时全面取消免费排放信用额度的发放，供小于求的状况将持续存在并且供需矛盾将进一步加剧。由此可见，欧盟的最新政策变动向碳交易市场释放了强制减排实施和推广的信号，该政策信号有可能挽救目前极其不景气的欧盟碳排放交易市场的低迷状况，并对在欧盟领域节能减排技术创新以及提高能源使用效率的投资预期产生积极的影响。Including LULUCF in the third phase of ETS of EU, that means forest credits after 2020 may be consid- ered as a complementary tool in the ETS as a supply sources, which shows the deeper policy considerations of EU to response the climate change action. Kyoto limited the domestic LULUCF activities that Parties could count to- wards commitment as afforestation, reforestation, and deforestation since 1990, In EU countries, there has been a step-by-step process of LULUCF being incorporated to the emission system through the summary on analysis on documentations. According to the first and second stages of the ETS market supply and demand statistics, with avail- able materials of EU Emissions plan for the third stage, it forecasts the market situation and finds even without the credits under LULUCF, 2005-2015 year the supply exceeds demand; from 2016, the situation has changed greatly, supply is less than demand; If LULUCF is to be incorporated in 2013, the supply is less than demand continually. This paper argues that the EU＇s new policy changes to the market release expected strong signal for emission mar- ket , the signal will attempt to save the current ETS ,which is extremely depressed, to encourage the energy saving and emission reduction and energy efficiency improvement. To integrate into world emission market through the establishment of global emission trading system, to improve the liquidity of the emissions credits and to provide poli- cy predictability of the regulations on ETS, are the fundamental needs ofEU ETS adjustment.

关 键 词：欧盟 排放交易体系 LULUCF 全球气候谈判 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]