基于GM(1,1)模型的台风灾害救灾物资需求量预测  

Demand Forecasting of Typhoon Disaster Reliet Supplies Based on GM(1,1) Model

作　　者：兰培真[1] 孙苗[1] 李春晓[1] 

机构地区：[1]集美大学航海学院,福建厦门361021

出　　处：《集美大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第6期440-444,共5页Journal of Jimei University：Natural Science

基　　金：福建省自然科学基金资助项目(2010J01359)

摘　　要：针对福建省台风灾害频发,需要根据气象等部门的有关信息对台风灾害救灾物资的种类和数量进行预测的需求,在对随机强烈振荡的受灾情况原始数据序列进行修正的基础上,应用GM(1,1)模型对受灾人口数量进行预测,然后根据受灾人口数量推算生活类救灾物资需求量.该方法经实例验证,可应用于不确定性较大的台风灾害救灾物资需求量的预测.In response to frequent typhoon disasters in Fujian province, there is the need to forecast the types and quantity of disaster relief supplies based on the information from the meteorological departments and so on. Based upon modifying the original data sequence of randomly picked disasters with strong oscillation, this paper forecasts the affected population using the GM （ 1, 1 ） model, and then deduces the necessary quantity of relief supplies for living according to the population. After being tested, this method can be ap- plied to forecast typhoon disaster relief supplies with greater uncertainties.

关 键 词：GM(1 1)模型 台风 救灾物资 预测 

分 类 号：U116[交通运输工程]