宝鸡市用水结构及用水量预测分析  

Analysis on structure and forecast of water consumption in Baoji City

作　　者：李琴[1] 马耀光[1] 

机构地区：[1]西北农林科技大学水利与建筑工程学院,陕西杨凌712100

出　　处：《干旱地区农业研究》2013年第6期238-242,共5页Agricultural Research in the Arid Areas

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50879071)

摘　　要：以1996—2011年宝鸡市用水量为基础,对其用水结构、用水趋势进行分析,并利用回归分析,得到用水的驱动力因素:人口、第一产业增加值、工业增加值、农民人均纯收入和城镇居民可支配收入5个因子。以该驱动力因子为输入层,以农业用水、工业用水、生活用水为输出层建立人工神经网络BP模型,对宝鸡市2012—2020年各行业用水量进行预测,结果表明:至2020年,农业用水、工业用水和生活用水分别为4.43亿m3、0.57亿m3、1.31亿m3,预测效果良好,精度可靠。Based on knowledge of mechanical theory and structure of soiling tools,the authors calculated optimal subsoiling condition（distance of successive cutting points from 50 and 70 mm）and tested the hypothesis by irrigation model using the novel horizontal-type subsoiling technique .The results showed that the depth of water penetration in-creased at least 20 mm more than untilled soil or ploughed soil by rotary tillage .In addition,the top of the wetted soil was 13 mm away from the surface of soil and the ratio of horizontal infiltration distance to vertical infiltration depth of irri-gation water decreased from 1 .3 to 0 .8 .By the virtue of this current technique,the density and water percentage of soil meet the requirement of seeding corn by water .In conclusion,the present technique increased the depth of water pene-tration and reduced water evaporation effectively during water added corn seeding .

关 键 词：用水结构 用水量预测 BP模型 宝鸡市 

分 类 号：TV212.2[水利工程—水文学及水资源]