基于D-S理论的延期支付与存货质押业务决策模型  

Decision Model of Delayed Payments and Inventory Impawn Financing Based on D-S Theory

作　　者：闫英[1] 叶怀珍[2] 陈思[2] 锁斌[3] 

机构地区：[1]西南科技大学经济管理学院,四川绵阳621010 [2]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都610031 [3]中国工程物理研究院,四川绵阳621900

出　　处：《运筹与管理》2013年第6期184-190,共7页Operations Research and Management Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(10776040);西南科技大学科研基金资助项目(12SX7106)

摘　　要：由于市场的不确定性,延期支付货款和存货质押融资中存在诸多不确定因素,使得资金需求企业难以做出有效的选择。针对此问题,从资金需求企业利润最大化的角度出发,首先分别给出了延期支付和存货质押两种业务下的企业利润模型,进而基于D-S理论建立了两种业务的决策模型。该模型以存货质押和延期支付业务下企业利润差额为目标函数,根据证据推理,以信任函数和似然函数构造出利润差额的上下界概率分布,并据此给出两种业务的决策依据。算例分析表明,对资金需求企业来说,存货质押融资业务并不一定优于延期支付,在特定的市场环境下,需要利用本文提出的模型进行定量计算,从而做出最优的选择。Because of uncertainties in market , there are several uncertain factors in inventory impawn financing and delayed payments , such as cash discount rate , inventory impawn financing rate , and lost sale penalty cost . These uncertain factors have important impacts on enterprise profits .As a consequence , it is difficult for an enterprise to decide which business to select .To solve this problem , enterprise profit models under the methods of inventory impawn financing and delayed payments are derived first .Then the decision model of business selec-tion is proposed based on evidence theory .In this model, profit difference between inventory impawn financing and delayed payments is taken as the object function .Based on evidence reasoning , lower and upper probability distributions of profit difference are constructed with belief and plausibility functions , with which the decision-making basis for the two businesses is proposed .The simulation results show that , inventory impawn financing is not always better than delayed payments to an enterprise demanding for funds .In a special market , best selection within these two businesses should be made based on the calculation results of proposed decision model .

关 键 词：物流金融 决策 延期支付 存货质押 D-S理论 

分 类 号：F272[经济管理—企业管理]