县域尺度的京津冀都市圈CO_2排放时空演变特征  

County Scale Characteristics of CO_2 Emission's Spatial-Temporal Evolution in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Metropolitan Region

作　　者：汪浩[1] 陈操操[1] 潘涛[1] 刘春兰[1] 陈龙[1] 孙莉[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京市环境保护科学研究院,国家城市环境污染控制工程技术研究中心,北京100037

出　　处：《环境科学》2014年第1期385-393,共9页Environmental Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41001380);北京市自然科学基金项目(8122023);北京市科技新星计划项目(2010B023);中国清洁发展机制基金赠款项目(1213075);北京市环科院科技基金项目(2013-A-04)

摘　　要：二氧化碳排放具有阶段性空间分布特征，研究其区域特征和格局演变可为减排提供重要的依据和方向．利用1990～2009年京津冀都市圈128个县级区域的二氧化碳排放量数据，运用比较统计地图和空间自相关分析方法对都市圈的二氧化碳排放的空间格局和空间依赖性进行研究．结果表明，京津冀都市圈二氧化碳排放量逐年增加，2002年之后的平均增速是2002年之前的1．8倍．各市二氧化碳排放增长趋势不一，呈三类变化趋势．都市圈二氧化碳排放格局呈现较明显的分层聚集现象，全局noYan指数先由1．44降低至1998年的0．09后缓慢回升至0．10，二氧化碳排放高值区域空间分布由“双中心”发展至“四中心”，低值区域变化较小．局部空间自相关性则呈现了4种类型的变化：大部分区域基本保持不变或减弱，唐山等地增强，天津部分区域和宣化县转变．高值中心和低值区域的空间自相关演变过程并不相同，在制定减排规划时需要因地制宜，适当考虑周边区域的相互作用．空间格局和空间自相关关系的探讨对于认识京津冀都市圈二氧化碳排放的空间规律和制定减排战略规划具有重要意义，也为都市圈低碳发展研究提供了基础．CO2 emission spatial distribution is characterized by stages. The study on regional distribution characteristics and evolution can supply important evidence for CO2 emission reduction. Based on CO2 emission data of 128 county areas in the Beijing-Tianjin- Hebei Metropolitan Region （BTHMR） from 1990 to 2009, the spatial pattern and spatial dependence of CO2 emission were discussed by using cartogram and spatial autocorrelation analysis methods. The results show that the total emission of CO2 increased year by year. Average annual growth of CO2 emission after 2002 was 3.7 times higher than before. Different cities have different emission growth trends which can be categorized into three types. The spatial pattern of CO2 emission appeared to be the layered cluster. The Global Moran＇I decreased from 1.44 in 1990 to 0. 09 in 1998 and then increased slowly to 0. 10 in 2009. The spatial distribution of high CO2 emission area changed from ＇ Double Centers＇ into ＇ Four Centers＇ and the spatial distribution of low CO2 emission area changed less. There were four different change types of local spatial autocorrelation： remaining unchanged or weakening in most regions, enhancing in some regions of Tangshan, transforming in some regions of Tianjin and Xuanhua county. Since the spatial pattern and autocorrelation in low/hlgh CO2 emission area bear different evolution process, the local conditions and interactions with perimeter zones should be considered when formulating emission reduction plan. The discussion of spatial pattern and autocorrelation is very important for understanding spatial evolution pattern of CO2 emission and developing strategic emission reduction planning, and also provides a base for the study on low carbon development in metropolitan area.

关 键 词：县级区域 空间格局 比较统计地图 空间自相关分析 二氧化碳排放 

分 类 号：X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]