现代服务业经济先行指标构建——基于江苏省1991-2011年数据实证分析  

Construction of Economic Leading Indicators of Modern Service Industry——Based on the Empirical Analyses of 1991-2011 Data in Jiangsu Province

作　　者：王骏[1] 

机构地区：[1]江苏经贸职业技术学院科技处,江苏南京211168

出　　处：《华东经济管理》2014年第1期16-20,共5页East China Economic Management

基　　金：江苏省社会科学基金项目(11JYB005)

摘　　要：国家要实现现代化,需要区域服务业率先现代化,为此,针对经济先行指标的研究是掌握现代服务业发展的指南。文章运用先行性指标体系构建原理,结合现代服务业特征和统计数据,运用时差相关分析和K-L信息量方法对指标进行筛选,通过计量经济学检验,最后制作扩散指数进行预测和分析,建立江苏现代服务业经济预测分析先行指标体系,并选取1991-2011年统计数据中10类主要因素对江苏省现代服务业的影响进行了实证分析。The country wishes to realize the modernization,which requires regional service industry should take the lead.Therefore,the research which aims at the economic leading indicators is the guide of mastering the development of modern ser vice industry.This essay tries to set up the leading indicator system for modern service industry in Jiangsu Province by taking do mestic and overseas experience,screening the indexes through correlation analysis on time differences and K-L information content combing with characters and statistical data of modern service industry,through the econometric test and conducting prediction and analysis from index.The essay takes the empirical analyses on the influence of selecting ten main factors in statis tical data of 1991-2011 on modern service industry Jiangsu Province.

关 键 词：现代服务业 先行指标 时差相关分析 K-L信息量 

分 类 号：F061.5[经济管理—政治经济学]