计及排污权交易和多种不确定性的发电投资决策  

Generation Investment Decision-making in Emission Trading Environment with Multiple Uncertainties

作　　者：寻斌斌 文福拴[3] 黎小林 文安 傅闯 

机构地区：[1]南方电网科学研究院,广东省广州市510080 [2]南方电网控制保护创新中心,广东省广州市510623 [3]浙江大学电气工程学院,浙江省杭州市310027

出　　处：《电力系统自动化》2014年第1期51-56,共6页Automation of Electric Power Systems

摘　　要：排污权交易实行后,增加了发电投资的不确定性,传统的净现值分析法已经无法满足投资决策的需要。文中采用广义自回归条件异方差模型描述电价、燃煤价格、天然气价格、CO2排污权价格和碳捕集与封存(CCS)处理价格,根据实物期权理论,将多种不确定性因素综合,建立了实物期权模型,分析了发电投资者在面临电价、燃料价格、排污权价格、政策变动、CCS技术发展等不确定性时,如何选择投资于传统的燃煤发电、联合循环燃气轮机(CCGT)机组还是风电、核电等新能源机组。最后,采用蒙特卡洛模拟法确定各种选择的项目价值和投资时间,验证了模型的有效性。As uncertainties for generation investment have increased after the implementation of emission right trading,the traditional net present value analysis is unable to meet the needs of power generation investment decision making.Firstly, generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity is used to describe the price of electricity,coal,natural gas,emission rights and cost of carbon capture and storage（CCS）.Secondly,according to the real option theory,a real option model is developed to help investors make decisions in face of various uncertainty factors,such as fluctuations of electricity price,fuel price and emission rights price,policy change,carbon capture and storage technology development.Investors should choose to invest in conventional coal-fired power,combined cycle gas turbine（CCGT）units or wind power,nuclear power and other forms of renewable energy.Finally,Monte Carlo simulation is used to determine the options for each investment project and its best investment time.The effectiveness of the model is verified.

关 键 词：发电投资 广义自回归条件异方差模型 排污权交易 实物期权 蒙特卡洛模拟 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学] F406.7[经济管理—产业经济] F224