BCC_CSM1.1模式对我国气温的模拟和预估  

Simulation and Projection of Temperature in China with BCC_CSM1.1 Model

作　　者：周鑫[1,2] 李清泉[1,2] 孙秀博[2] 魏敏[3] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学大气科学学院,南京210044 [2]国家气候中心中国气象局气候研究开放实验室,北京100081 [3]国家气象信息中心,北京100081

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2014年第1期95-106,共12页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(2012CB955203);国家高技术研究发展计划(2010AA012404;2010AA012403);公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201106022);国家自然科学基金项目(41175065)

摘　　要：利用我国541个测站1960—2010年气温资料以及国家气候中心参加第5次耦合模式比较计划（CMIP5）的气候系统模式BCC_CSM1．1的历史试验和年代际试验结果，评估了该模式对我国近50年气温变化特征的模拟能力，对模式的年代际试验结果进行了误差订正，并给出未来10～20年我国气温变化的预估。结果表明：历史试验和年代际试验均模拟出了与观测较为一致的增暖趋势，但均没有观测资料的增暖幅度大。其中，历史试验比年代际试验更接近于观测。年代际尺度上，模式对我国东部的模拟要好于西部；年际尺度上，模式的高预报技巧区在我国西北地区西南部和东部、西南地区北部。历史试验和年代际试验对我国气温空间场整体分布模拟较好，误差订正后的年代际试验结果对空间气温场的模拟有更好把握。相对于观测资料得到的1960--2010年0．27℃／10a的增温速率，模式预估我国2011—2030年平均气温变化速率达到0．48℃／10a，上升趋势更加明显。Inter-annual and inter-decadal variability are two kinds of different timescale variability existing at the same time in climate system found in previous studies. Affected by the global warming, the inter-decadal signal of cli- mate change becomes more and more significant. The next 10 to 30 years of climate change, namely inter-decadal time scales climate change and their impacts on the global environment, society and economic deyelopment, draw more and more attention. Climate change features of inter-decadal scale become one of the most important content of the IPCC ARS. The 10 to 30 years~ timescale of inter-decadal forecast experiment which is listed as one of the main experiment content has joined the 5th Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project （CMIP5）. More in-depth re- search will be carried out on predictability of inter-decadal timescale. The air temperature data of 541 stations in China from 1960 to 2010 as well as the CMIP5 historical and decadal experiment results of Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model （BCC_CSM1.1） are uti- lized to evaluate the simulation ability of the model. The model results are interpolated to the correspond- ing latitude and longitude of 541 stations use bilinear interpolation method. Whether the pattern of region- al prediction ability could improve by the decadal experiment of BCC_CSM1.1 which initialed the SST （sea surface temperature） is discussed. Bias corrections to the decadal experiment results are done and the pre- liminary projection of the changes of the air temperature of China for the next 10--20 years is presented. Results show that both historical and decadal experiments can capture the warming trend in accordance with the observations, but the warming tendency of the experiments are less significant than those of ob- servations. Results of historical experiments are slightly better than those of decadal experiments of the model. On the inter-decadal timescales, simulations in the eastern part of China are better than those in the western part

关 键 词：CMIP5 BCC_CSM1 1 气温 误差订正 预估 

分 类 号：P468.021[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]