高铁乘客换乘常规公交平均等候时间模型  

Average waiting time model for passengers transfering from high-speed railway to bus

作　　者：裴玉龙[1] 申翔浩[1] 周侃 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学交通学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040 [2]深圳市市政设计研究院有限公司,广东深圳518029

出　　处：《交通运输工程学报》2013年第6期76-82,共7页Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51278158)

摘　　要：分析了高铁乘客换乘常规公交等候时间的特性,实测了高铁枢纽内公交站台乘客的到达时间,对乘客到达时间进行了分布拟合与K-S检验。基于概率论方法,建立了考虑公交车辆运载能力限制的乘客平均等候时间模型,验证了模型的有效性,并仿真分析了高铁列车与公交车辆到达时间间隔、换乘人数、公交车辆运载能力及公交车辆准点率对乘客平均等候时间的影响。仿真结果表明:当高铁列车到达时间间隔为10min,公交车辆到达时间间隔从200s增加至600s时,换乘乘客的平均等候时间由120s增加至1 000s;当公交车辆的运载能力为50人·veh-1,换乘人数从50增加至200时,换乘乘客的平均等候时间由100s增加至900s;当公交车辆平均到达时间间隔为200s,公交车辆到达时间间隔标准差从0增加至400s时,换乘乘客的平均等候时间由110s增加至800s。换乘乘客的平均等候时间与公交车辆到达时间间隔呈正相关关系,与高铁列车到达时间间隔呈负相关关系,与换乘人数呈正相关关系,与公交车辆的准点率呈负相关关系。The characteristics of the waiting times of passengers transfering from high-speed railway to bus were analyzed, the actual arrival times of passengers at bus stations in high-speed railway hubs were tested, the distribution of passenger arrival times was fitted, and K-S test was carried out. Based on probabilistic theory, the average waiting time model was set up by considering the limitation of bus carrying capacity, the validity of the proposed model was verified, and the influences of the arrival time intervals of high-speed train and bus, transfer passenger amount, bus carrying capacity and bus punctuality rate on the average waiting time of passengers were simulated. Simulation result indicates that when the arrival time interval of high- speed train is 10 rain and the arrival time interval of bus increases from 200 s to 600 s, the average waiting time of transfer passengers increases from 120 s to 1 000 s. When bus carrying capacity is 50 people·veh^-1 and transfer passenger amount increases from 50 to 200, the average waiting time of transfer passengers increases from 100 s to 900 s. When the average arrival time interval of bus is 200 s and the standard deviation of bus arrival time interval increases from 0 to 400 s, the average waiting time of transfer passengers increases from 110 s to 800 s. The average waiting time of transfer passengers has a positive correlation with bus arrival time interval, a negative correlation with the arrival time interval of high-speed train, a positive correlation with transfer passenger amount, and a negative correlation with bus punctuality rate. 5 tabs, 7 figs, 22 refs.

关 键 词：交通规划 公共交通 数值仿真 换乘 平均等候时间 

分 类 号：U491.17[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]