居民交通方式选择行为影响因素分析  

Analysis on Influencial Factors of Travel Mode Choice Behavior of Residents

作　　者：郑雪琳[1] 干宏程[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学超网络研究中心,上海200093

出　　处：《上海理工大学学报》2013年第6期563-566,共4页Journal of University of Shanghai For Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51008195);上海市研究生创新基金资助项目(JWCXSL1202);上海市教委科研创新资助项目(09YZ205);上海市重点学科建设资助项目(S30504)

摘　　要：交通方式选择行为是交通需求预测研究的重要内容.利用上海出行者交通方式选择意向调查数据,对小汽车、轨道交通、自行车3种交通方式的选择行为进行了分析与建模.对轨道交通票价、小汽车出行时间及费用的多种组合情景下的各交通方式分担比例作了分析.运用计量经济学中的离散选择建模方法,建立了包括出行者个体属性、出行时间及费用等因素的交通方式选择多元logit模型,提出了交通规划和管理政策与措施方面的建议.Travel mode choice behavior is very important for traffic demand forecasting study.With Shanghai travelers＇ stated preference data,the choice behaviors of three transportation modes including car,railway and bicycle were analyzed and modeled.The transportation share proportion was analysed,in which six scenarios were presented,with each scenario including different combination of railway fares,car travel time and costs.A transportation choice probability model,considering traveler individual attributes,travel time and cost was proposed with the use of discrete choice in micro econometrics modeling method.Some policies and measures were put forward for transportation planning and management.

关 键 词：交通方式选择 离散选择模型 意向数据 多元LOGIT模型 轨道交通 

分 类 号：U491[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]