道路交通事故的灰色预测与黑点分析  

Gray Prediction and Black-Spots Analysis of Road Traffic Accidents

作　　者：王洪德[1] 赵婷[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连交通大学土木与安全工程学院,辽宁大连116021

出　　处：《大连交通大学学报》2014年第1期37-40,49,共5页Journal of Dalian Jiaotong University

基　　金：辽宁省自然科学基金资助项目(201202022);大连市科技计划资助项目(2011E15SF118)

摘　　要：以某市区为研究对象,分析该市区人口密度较高的三个区域交通事故现状,首先利用灰色预测法建立道路交通事故GM(1,1)灰色预测模型,对未来几年市区道路交通事故数进行预测;然后根据道路交通安全影响因素,研究市内三个区域交通事故黑点分布;最后基于人、车、道路、环境综合影响分析,结合事故类型和易发地点判定,找出道路交通事故黑点产生的原因,并根据具体情况提出相应防治措施,以期为城市交通安全管控提供依据.Taking three highest populated areas of a city as the research objective to analyze the transportation condition,the GM （ 1,1 ） model was established on the basis of grey prediction method to forecast the number of traffic accidents in the city, and the black-spots of traffic accidents in the three areas were discussed aece-l- ing to the road traffic safety influence factors. Based on the comprehensive action analysis of the elements of human, automobile, road and environment, combing the determinant to the accident types and accident easy oc- curring places, the cause of the traffic accident black-spots were found, and the corresponding preventing and controlling measures were introduced, which provides references and solutions for city transportation safety management.

关 键 词：交通事故 灰色预测 事故黑点 道路环境 

分 类 号：U491.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]