云南省山洪地质灾害气象预报预警方法研究  

Meteorological Early-Warning Research of Mountain Torrent and Geologic Hazard in Yunnan Province

作　　者：胡娟[1] 闵颖[1] 李华宏[1] 李湘[1] 李超[1] 李磊[1] 

机构地区：[1]云南省气象台,云南昆明650034

出　　处：《灾害学》2014年第1期62-66,共5页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：云南省科技惠民计划项目"云南怒江流域精细化地质灾害气象预警系统研究及示范"(2013CA014);中国气象局山洪地质灾害防治气象保障工程项目"云南省山洪地质灾害精细化气象预报预警业务系统研究";云南省气象局预报员技术开发专项项目"云南省滑坡泥石流灾害预报预警模型精细化研究"(YB201301)

摘　　要：通过分析云南省2000-2011年116个县站共计1 101次山洪地质灾害个例和近12年的逐日降水数据,探讨山洪地质灾害与降水之间的关系,并提出适用于本省的山洪地质灾害气象预报预警的方法。研究表明云南省的山洪地质灾害时间变化与降水的时间变化吻合,灾害主要集中在雨季(5-10月)发生,并在主汛期出现峰值;灾害的空间分布具有西多东少、西北多东南少的特征,在滇南和滇西南山洪地质灾害总次数的高中心的分布与强降水日数中心值的空间分布基本一致。经过计算116个县站各次个例的日综合雨量,分析得出各县站诱发山洪地质灾害的临界雨量,并对临界雨量分级定出各县站山洪地质灾害气象预报预警的5个风险等级,在2012年的山洪地质灾害气象预报预警业务中取得良好效果。By analyzing 1101 cases of mountain torrent and geologic hazard and data of rainfall between 2000 to 2011 of 116 meteorological stations in Yunnan Province,the relationships of mountain torrent and geologic hazard occurred by precipitation are discussed,and based on which the meteorological early-warning method for hazards is proposed. It indicated that the temporal variation of mountain torrent and geologic hazard is consistent with which of precipitation. The rainy season（ May. to Oct.） is the fastigium of mountain torrent and geologic hazard,with the peak value in major flood season. The frequency of mountain torrent and geologic hazard is more in west of Yunnan than in eastern and more in northwestern than in southeastern. The space distribution of mountain torrent and geologic hazard is basically consistent with which of heavy rainfall days in south and southwest of Yunnan Province. According to the 1101 daily synthesized rainfall data composed of real-time precipitation and effective antecedent precipitation,the critical rainfall is confirmed,on which five grades for early-warning of mountain torrent and geologic hazard are based. There had good effect of the application of the model in 2012 events.

关 键 词：山洪地质灾害 日综合雨量 临界雨量 风险分级 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] P642[天文地球—工程地质学]