黄、渤海恶劣天气影响船舶安全的风险预估技术初探  

Risk Prediction Technology of Ship Safety in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea during Severe Weathers

作　　者：解以扬[1] 刘大刚[2] 吴丹朱[1] 曲平[1] 林毅[1] 史得道[3] 赵金霞 吴彬贵[1] 何乃光[1] 邱晓滨[1] 曾凡荣[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津市气象科学研究所,天津300074 [2]大连海事大学,辽宁大连116026 [3]天津市气象台,天津300074 [4]天津市滨海新区气象局,天津300457

出　　处：《灾害学》2014年第1期136-143,共8页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：科技部公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006034;GYHY201106006);科技兴海项目(KJXH2012-25);天津市自然基金(13JCYBJC20000)

摘　　要：在黄渤海船舶类型调查和事故调查的基础上,将船舶航行作为由人-船-环境组成的多因素复杂系统,将气象海况条件作为操船环境因素之一,依据风险决策ALARP准则,调查得到黄海、渤海海区大风浪条件下5 000 t以下货船和客滚轮的不同风险等级标准,具有一定的可操作性。依托精细化的数值预报产品,建立气象保障支持系统,并加工不同船舶的风险预估产品。对实际出现的海难事故进行风险预估,证明了方法的可用性。还需要研究更多船型的风险预估方法和黄海、渤海海区航行船舶的风险区划;已有方法也有待深化。Based on the investigation of the type of ship and accidents in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea,the ship navigation is considered as a complicated system which impacted by people,boat and environment,And the meteorological is selected as one of environmental factors of ship handling. On the basis of ALARP standard,the risk grade of cargo ship（ bellow 5 000t） and passenger ship in great stormy waves in Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea is investigated. The meteorological support system is developed based on the meticulous numerical forecast products and could provide risk assessment products with different ship types. Risk prediction technology is confirmed by estimating the risk of actual shipwrecks. The risk prediction methods for different ships are necessary. The risk grade regionalization of more ship types in the Yellow Sea and Bohai Sea are given. The existing methods need to be improved.

关 键 词：黄渤海 大风浪 船舶安全 风险预估 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]