基于博弈论组合赋权的泥石流危险度评价  

Combined Weight Method Based on Game Theory for Debris Flow Hazard Risk Assessment

作　　者：路遥[1] 徐林荣[1] 陈舒阳[1] 曹禄来 

机构地区：[1]中南大学土木工程学院,湖南长沙410075

出　　处：《灾害学》2014年第1期194-200,共7页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金"泥石流危害桥隧工程承灾链特征与工程易损度动态评价方法研究"(41272376);铁道部专项项目"高速铁路灾害防治与应急救援技术措施研究"(2011G017-C);西部交通建设科技项目"活动断裂区高速公路泥石流灾害防治技术与推广应用研究"(200831800087)

摘　　要：多目标模糊优选模型是地质灾害评价中的常用模型,多采用层次分析法等传统主观权重计算方法确定指标权重,存在判断矩阵偏主观、一致性检验过程较繁琐的问题。鉴于此,结合灰色系统理论与二元比较法,提出了一种自然满足一致性要求的关联度-二元比较分析法,同时基于博弈论集结模型对主、客观权重进行组合赋权,充分挖掘、利用关联度-二元比较分析法的主观权重信息与熵值法的客观权重信息,从而克服单一权重的片面性。将该组合赋权法在泥石流灾害危险度评价中进行了实例应用及验证,分析表明:该方法评价结果准确、在泥石流危险度评价中切实可行,可为类似项目提供参考和借鉴。Multi-objective fuzzy optimization models are commonly used in the evaluation of geological disasters,which mostly adopt traditional subjective weighting methods such as analytic hierarchy process（ AHP） to determine the index weight,with a series of problems such as judgment matrix is too subjective,and consistency check process is too complicated. In view of this,based on the binary comparison method and the grey system theory,this paper put forward a kind of correlation,which could meet the demand of consistency,namely,binary comparison analysis method. Meanwhile,a combined subjective and objective weight based on the game theory model are given,which can fully exert and utilize the subjective weight information of the correlation binary analysis method and the objective weight information of entropy value method. Thus,the one-sidedness of the single weight can be overcome. In order to verify the combination weight method in the debris flow disaster risk evaluation,case analysis is conducted. The accurate evaluation results show that the method is feasible in the debris flow risk assessment,which can provide reference for similar projects.

关 键 词：博弈论集结模型 泥石流危险度评价 主观赋权法 客观赋权法 组合赋权法 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]