基于可变集的地震灾害应急物资分配模型  

Allocation Model of Emergency Supplies in Earthquake Disasters Based on Variable Sets

作　　者：郎坤[1] 张明媛[1] 袁永博[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学建设工程学部,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《灾害学》2014年第1期201-206,共6页Journal of Catastrophology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51208081);国际科学理事会灾害风险综合研究计划项目(IRDR2012)

摘　　要：为了减少地震灾害带来的巨大人员伤亡和财产损失,及时挽救生命、减轻灾害影响,应用可变集理论建立地震灾害应急物资分配模型。对影响地震应急物资分配的关键因素进行识别与分析,建立指标相对隶属度矩阵,利用模糊标度法确定指标权向量,应用可变集理论对灾区急需物资的紧迫程度进行优先级排序,进而确定物资分配方案,确定应急物资分配数量,从而弥补了以往模型决策效率低、决策过程复杂、决策结果客观性及准确性差等缺点,减少了因主观或片面的信息统计而产生的不必要的资源浪费。通过对汶川地震实例的分析,验证了该模型的实用性。In order to reduce huge casualties and property damage caused by earthquake disasters,save lives and reduce the impact of disasters timely,an allocation model of emergency supplies based on variable sets is built. Key factors with influences on the emergency supplies allocation is identified and analyzed to establish a relative membership degree matrix of indexes. By using the fuzzy scale method,weigh vectors of indexes are determined. Priorities of the urgent degree of all demands of supplies in disaster area are determined based on variable set theory. Allocation scheme and allotted quantity of emergency supplies are thus determined. This model offsets some weaknesses existing in former models,such as the low decision-making efficiency,the complicated decision-making process,the poor objectivity and accuracy of decision-making results,and reduces the unnecessary wasting of resources created by the subjective or one-sided information statistics. The practical applicability of this model is verified through the analysis of the case of Wenchuan earthquake.

关 键 词：地震灾害 应急物资分配 可变集 模糊优选 决策 

分 类 号：C94[自然科学总论—系统科学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]