行为决策中的基线比例忽略：心理机制与影响因素  

Base-rate Neglect in Behavioral Decision: Psychological Mechanisms and Influencing Factors

作　　者：孔诗晓[1] 徐富明[1] 史燕伟 李海军[1] 相鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]青少年网络心理与行为教育部重点实验室、华中师范大学心理学院暨湖北省人的发展与心理健康重点实验室,武汉430079

出　　处：《应用心理学》2013年第4期356-363,共8页Chinese Journal of Applied Psychology

摘　　要：基线比例忽略是指个体进行决策和判断时不能充分利用或者忽略基线比例而偏好新信息的现象。该现象普遍存在于日常行为与决策的许多领域,尤其显著表现在临床医疗领域,因此对这一现象的研究具有重要的应用价值。目前,基线比例忽略的心理机制主要有双加工理论和因果贝叶斯框架等。基线比例忽略的影响因素主要包括认知能力、年龄、基线比例的表述形式等。未来的研究需要从基线比例忽略的神经机制、影响因素以及应用研究的拓展等方面着手。Base-rate Neglect refers to the phenomenon that de- scribes people＇s tendency to under-estimate or even neglect base-rate information in favor of new data. The phenomenon is widespread in many fields of dai- ly behavior and decision making, especially in the field of clinical medicine. The current psychological mechanisms of Base-rate Neglect include the dual- process theory and causal Bayesian framework. Evi-dences show base-rate neglect may be influenced by some factors, such as cognitive competence, age and base-rate＇s form of expression. Further research of base-rate neglect should focus on its neural mecha- nisms, influential factors, and application research.

关 键 词：基线比例忽略 双加工理论 因果贝叶斯框架 冲突探测 

分 类 号：B842[哲学宗教—基础心理学] C93[哲学宗教—心理学]