国际油价突变识别及分析  

Identification and Analysis of the Breaking Point of Oil Price

作　　者：柴建[1,2] 朱青[1] 张钟毓 肖浩[2] 汪寿阳[2] 

机构地区：[1]陕西师范大学国际商学院,陕西西安710062 [2]中国科学院数学与系统科学研究院,北京100190

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2014年第1期109-117,共9页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"国际油价波动对我国节能减排的时变时滞影响效应研究"(编号:71103115);中国博士后科学基金项目"能源价格及其结构变动的动态影响效应分析"(编号:2012M510580);陕西省软科学研究计划项目"陕西省节能减排的政策效应分析及实现途径研究"(编号:2012KRM95)

摘　　要：随着国际油价对各种事件反应灵敏度的增加及中国成品油价格改革的市场化方向,油价频繁的突变将对我国宏观经济的平稳发展产生巨大冲击,但是经济环境的变化、油价核心影响因素的变迁使得不同时间下油价发生突变的引致因素及突发事件均有所不同,识别并分析油价突变的时间及形成原因具有重要的现实意义。基于此,作者首先给出了商品价格变动容忍阈值及商品价格突变的定义,利用PPM模型,对国际历史油价及相关影响变量的突变进行识别和分析,结果共显示出8次显著的油价突变。1999年2季度油价突变发生的直接原因是亚洲金融危机的冲击,实际原因是石油供需结构的失衡,具体来说,石油供应方对市场石油需求变动的估计不足及中国净进口的增加,导致了油价的快速回落和短期剧烈反弹;此后的7次油价突变,美元指数一直是最主要的直接影响因素之一,而地缘政治事件及经济情况带动的需求变化或预期变化成为油价突变的基础,新兴经济体的需求增长成为促使油价突变的新生因素。Along with the responsiveness of international oil prices on various events increased and the marketization of China＇ s oil price system reform, the frequent mutation of oil prices have a huge impact on the steady development of Chinese macroeconomy. However, different inducing factors and unexpected events emerging in the breaking point of the oil price occurred occasionally because of changing in economic environment and core influencing factors of oil price. These necessitate the practical need for indentifying and analyzing when and how the breaking point of oil takes place. Based on this, this paper gives the definition of the tolerance threshold and mutations of commodity price, and applies the PPM model to distinguish and analyze the mutations of the oil price and related effect factors. The results show eight significant breaking points of oil price. In the second quarter of 1999, breaking point of oil price was directly caused by the Asian financial crisis, the root cause is that the imbalanced structure of oil supply and demand. Specifically, the oil suppliers undersetimated the oil demand of the market and China＇ s net imports increased, as a result, a rapid decline the market underestimated of oil supply appeared in oil prices and a dramatic rebound in the short term. In the next seven breaking points of oil price, the US dollar index was one of the main direct causes. And geopolitical events and the anticipated changes or demand changes driven by economic conditions became the foundation of breaking point of oil price. At the same time, demand growth from emerging economies is also becoming a new factor for the breaking point of oil price.

关 键 词：石油价格 石油供需 美元指数 突变 PPM 

分 类 号：F062.1[经济管理—政治经济学]