风电项目前期风险元传递模型研究  

Risk Elements Transmission Model in the Earlier Stage of Wind Power Project

作　　者：常昊[1] 刘吉成[1] 李存斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206

出　　处：《华东电力》2014年第1期115-118,共4页East China Electric Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71071054)~~

摘　　要：根据风电项目前期风险元的特点,分析了风险元的分布情况,在此基础上,构建了风电项目前期风险元传递模型,运用模糊算法确定了风电项目前期风险元发生的概率,探讨了风电项目前期风险元传递的的结构,建立了风电项目前期RBF神经网络型风险元传递算法,并进行了算例仿真,构建了学习样本集,在Matlab7.0平台上,使用样本集对网络进行了训练和测试。测试结果表明所建立的风险元传递模型具有正确性和可行性,可为风电项目前期风险管理者提供决策依据。According to the characteristics of risk elements in the earlier stage of wind power project, the distribution of risk elements is analyzed. Thereupon the risk elements transmission model in the earlier stage of wind power project is built; the occurrence probability of risk elements is determined by using fuzzy algorithm; the risk elements trans- mission structure is discussed; risk elements transmission algorithm with RBF neural network is established. Then calculation example is simulated ; the network is trained and tested on Matlab 7.0 platform bu using the established learning sample set. The results indicate that the proposed model is correct and feasible, providing decision-making basis for risk managers in the earlier stage of wind power project.

关 键 词：风电项目 风险元传递 模糊算法 RBF神经网络 

分 类 号：TM614[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]