基于LMDI分解方法的北京地区碳排放驱动因素分析  

Analysis of the Driving Factors of Carbon Emissions in Beijing based on LMDI Method

作　　者：吴振信[1] 石佳[1] 王书平[1] 

机构地区：[1]北方工业大学经济管理学院,北京100144

出　　处：《中国科技论坛》2014年第2期85-91,共7页Forum on Science and Technology in China

基　　金：北京市教委学科建设专项基金(PXM2013_014212_000005);北京市属市管高等学校人才强教计划资助项目(PHR20110869)

摘　　要：运用LMDI分解方法对北京地区1995—2010年的能源碳排放进行了因素分解,在此基础上,定量分析了这些因素对碳排放的影响程度和影响规律。研究发现:北京地区能源强度是能源碳排放最大的负向驱动因素,能源结构和产业结构因素对减排做出了很大的贡献,而经济发展规模与人口规模是拉动北京地区碳排放增长的主要因素,交通运输业对北京地区的能源碳排放影响不容忽视。This paper uses the LMDI decomposition method to decompose the factors of energy carbon emissions in Beijing from the year 1995 to 2010.On this basis,these factors impacting on carbon emissions laws and effects quantitatively were analysed.The study found that the energy intensity of Beijing is the largest negative driving factors of its carbon emission.The energy structure and the industrial structure have also made great contribution to emission reduction.However,the scale of economic development and population size are the main driving factors of emissions in Beijing.The carbon emissions from transportation in Beijing can not be ignored either.

关 键 词：碳排放 LMDI分解 驱动因素 

分 类 号：X24[环境科学与工程—环境科学]