开发商区位选择行为模拟与征收拆迁冲突区域的识别——以杭州市萧山区为例  

Modeling Developers' Decision-making on Location and Identifying Land Conflict Areas: A Case Study in Xiaoshan District

作　　者：祝锦霞[1] 鲍海君[1] 徐保根[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江财经大学不动产研究所,浙江杭州310018

出　　处：《中国土地科学》2013年第11期59-64,共6页China Land Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(41371187);浙江省自然科学基金(LY13D010004);浙江省钱江人才计划C类项目(QJC1202019);浙江省教育厅项目(Y201225543)

摘　　要：研究目的:通过对萧山区征收拆迁冲突的案例分析,研究征收拆迁冲突区域的识别框架。研究方法:以遥感和GIS技术为基础,从开发商区位选择行为入手,自下而上的构建基于Agent的复杂系统建模方法。研究结果:开发商的商品/非商品住宅的模拟精度——Kappa系数分别为0.63和0.595,较好地模拟萧山区征收拆迁冲突的情景。研究结论:为浙江省乃至中国经济社会发展过程中的征收拆迁冲突问题的解决提供科学依据。The purpose of this study is to propose a comprehensive simulation framework for identifying the land conflicts area. Methods of ABM and bottom-up routine were employed. The framework was supported by data obtaining from Remote Sensing and spatial analysis of GIS. The results demonstrated that the Kappa coefficients of the monitoring were 0.630 and 0.595, which could exactly reflect the practical tendency of development. The paper further proposes some operational control measures for solving land conflicts at Zhejiang Province as well as China.

关 键 词：土地管理 GIS PBL 征收拆迁 模拟 

分 类 号：F301.2[经济管理—产业经济]