时间序列法预测细菌性痢疾发病文献回顾  

Review on the literature of incidence prediction of bacillary dysentery by time-series analysis included in China National Knowledge Infrastructure in recent four years

作　　者：曹爽[1] 李范[2] 黄德生[3] 刘合岭[4] 关鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国医科大学公共卫生学院流行病学教研室,辽宁沈阳110001 [2]中国医科大学医学信息学系 [3]中国医科大学基础医学院数学教研室 [4]中国医科大学基础医学院生物医学工程系

出　　处：《实用预防医学》2014年第2期132-134,共3页Practical Preventive Medicine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71073175)

摘　　要：目的描述时间序列分析在细菌性痢疾发病预测领域的研究现状。方法设定纳入标准后在中国知网数据库中收集该主题相关文献。结果自2009年以来,共有19项研究利用时间序列分析方法进行菌痢发病率的预测分析,研究分布在11个省、自治区和直辖市。其中15项研究在地区层面基于地级市的数据进行预测分析。结论时间序列分析已在传染病发病率预测预警领域引起广泛关注和应用。Objective To describe the application of time- series analysis in the incidence prediction of bacillary dysentery. Methods Chinese literature about the target topic that were published since 2009 were collected from the China National Knowledge Infrastructure according to a pre- defined inclusion criteria. Results Nineteen publications from 11 provinces fi- nally met the inclusion criteria and 15 studies were at the municipal level. Conclusions More attention has been paid by the specialized personnel in the field of communicable disease warning system.

关 键 词：细菌性痢疾 发病率 预测 时间序列分析 

分 类 号：R516.4[医药卫生—内科学]