船舶波浪弯矩1周短期预报研究  

Investigation on short-term forecasting of a week for ships' wave bending moment

作　　者：唐松[1] 张火明[1] 吴剑国[2] 管卫兵[3] 

机构地区：[1] 中国计量学院 计量测试工程学院,浙江 杭州310018 [2] 浙江工业大学 船舶与海洋工程研究所,浙江 杭州310014 [3] 国家海洋局第二海洋研究所 卫星海洋环境动力学国家重点实验室,浙江 杭州310012

出　　处：《舰船科学技术》2014年第1期42-45,共4页Ship Science and Technology

基　　金：浙江省自然科学基金资助项目(No.Y6110243);国家科技重大专项(2009ZX07424-001)

摘　　要：当船舶在海上发生碰撞、搁浅、泄漏等事故后,需在1周之内进行救助,所以有必要研究船舶1周短期波浪弯矩的预报方法。本文介绍2种方法:一是利用WALCS软件,基于三维频域线性水动力理论,计算后得到16艘船舶(6艘散货船、10艘油船)的1周短期波浪弯矩,记为1周软件波浪弯矩预报值;二是根据极值I型理论,通过公式推导,利用已知3小时波浪弯矩有义值M S,计算后得到了16艘船舶的1周短期波浪弯矩,记为1周极值I型波浪弯矩预报值。经比较发现二者预报结果高度一致,认为采用极值I型理论进行船舶波浪弯矩1周短期预报准确可靠,且该方法耗时更短,简便易行,值得推广。After accidents of collisions, groundings and spills, ships need help in a week. So it′s necessary for investigation on short-term forecasting of a week for the ships′ wave bending moment. This paper forecasts the ships′wave bending moment of a week by two kinds of ways. The first way, based on the 3-D linear hydrodynamic theory, we investigate short-term forecasting of a week for the ships′wave bending moment directly to 6 bulk carriers and 10 oil tankers by WALCS software and get the results which called predicted value of WALCS software. The other way, based on formula derivation, we forecast the ships′wave bending moment of a week by extreme value theory of type I and get the results which called predicted value of extreme value theory of type I, making use of the ships′wave bending moment of three hours. The two kinds of consequences are very consistent. So it′s accurate and reliable to forecast the ships′ wave bending moment of a week by extreme value theory of type I. It is found that prediction results are highly consistent, can be considered to use extreme value theory of type I is accurate and reliable, and the method is simple, less time-consuming, worthy of promotion.

关 键 词：波浪弯矩 1周短期预报 极值I型理论 

分 类 号：U676[交通运输工程—船舶及航道工程]