中国货币结构的缓长记忆过程及制度完善  

Long Memory of Currency Structure and System Perfection in China

作　　者：张艾莲[1] 刘柏[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学商学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2014年第1期49-56,共8页Financial Economics Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目(11BJY141);教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目(11YJC790263)

摘　　要：由于货币结构受到市场经济运行和政策调控的双重影响,中国货币结构在不同时点之间存在相关关系。通过Hurst指数和ARFIMA模型检验表明,中国货币结构具有缓长记忆性。货币结构的缓长记忆性诠释了货币政策的持久影响,在横向层面上针对现实经济状况变化的同时,应该在纵向层面上关注货币结构的历史表现和政策措施的历史执行,并对延后影响的时期和作用审时度势,防止措施实施前的判断失误导致的效果失效。在运用货币政策进行经济调控时,需兼顾货币供应量及货币结构的适用领域和强度,并结合多类型政策措施,以实现推动经济增长的最终目标。Because currency structure suffers from dual influence of market economy and policy control, currency structures of China at different times have correlation. The re- sults of Hurst index and ARFIMA model showed that currency structure bear long memory. Long memory of currency structure annotated the lasting effect of monetary policy. When policy is made on the basis of economic situation at transverse level, it should be made on the basis of history performance of currency structure and policy measures at longitudinal level, and assesses the period and effect of situation hysteresis to avoid losing effectiveness for judgment muff. When monetary policy is used to control economy, it should be made on the basis of appliance field and intensity of monetary supply and currency structure and combined with various kinds of policy measures to achieve economic growth.

关 键 词：货币结构 缓长记忆 ARFIMA模型 

分 类 号：F822.1[经济管理—财政学]