基于突变级数评价方法的电子商务发展指标体系研究  

Research of Catastrophe Progression Method to Construct the Index System of China's E-commerce Development

作　　者：谌楠[1] 杨坚争[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海理工大学管理学院,上海200093

出　　处：《现代情报》2014年第2期3-7,共5页Journal of Modern Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(项目编号:70973079);上海市一流学科建设项目(项目编号:S1201YLXK);上海市研究生创新基金项目(项目编号:JWCXSL1301)研究成果之一

摘　　要：本文构建了兼具国际可比性与数据可得性的电子商务发展水平综合评价指标体系,采用突变理论综合评价方法测算了我国电子商务发展指数及各要素指数。根据本文指标体系建立的回归模型表明,各级政府时下都着重强调的电子商务交易额等电子商务使用效果类指标对电子商务发展的促进作用最不明显,电子商务应用类指标最明显,说明政府应重点关注电子商务应用的创新与发展。The emergence of e - commerce brings a new strategic oppommity for the re - emergence of China in the world dual- market competition, whieh makes die measurement of development levels and assessment of key elements of e - commerce provide a aigoifieant guidance to China＇s e- commerce. This paper set up a comprehensive evaluation index system of e - com- merce development levels, which has characteristics of both international comparability and data availability; in addition, it eal- eulated the values of each indicator of the system by utilizing synthetic evaluation method based on catastrophe theory. All levels of government focus on current e- commerce volume which factor actually do not have an obvious positive effect to promote China＇s e - comJnerce demonstrated by regression model based on the establislled index system, on the cgntrary, e - coiranerce application do have a significant role in promoting development of e - commerce. It is not wise for government to overemptmsize the status of e - commerce volume, but rather focus on innovation and development of e - commerce applieation in the field of payment, logis- ties and sales; only in this way will the China＇s e- commerce have a better development whieh is a helpful suggestion proposed by this paper.

关 键 词：电子商务发展指标体系 突变理论 综合评价方法 回归模型 

分 类 号：C829.23[社会学—统计学]