收入差异对总体消费的影响——一个数值模拟研究  

Impact of Income Inequality on Aggregate Consumption

作　　者：杨旭[1] 郝翌[1] 于戴圣[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京交通大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《数量经济技术经济研究》2014年第3期20-37,共18页Journal of Quantitative & Technological Economics

基　　金：北京交通大学基本科研业务费(2011JBM237)的资助

摘　　要：本文以蒙特卡罗模拟为主要手段,辅以计量方法,研究不同程度的收入差异对总体消费的影响。最终得到以下结论:随着基尼系数从0增加到1,总体消费总体上呈递减的趋势,但递减的过程具有明显的非线性特征。在基尼系数从0增加到0.4之前,总体消费随之下降的幅度较小,且波动性很小。在基尼系数增至0.4后,随着基尼系数的增加,总体消费突然大幅下降,而且波动性也大幅增加。随着基尼系数接近1附近时,这种情况逐步减弱。In this paper, the impacts of income inequality on aggregate consumption are studied based on the Monte Carlo simulation and econometric methods. We finally arrives at conclusions as following. As the Gini coefficient increases from 0 to 1, the overall consumption in general shows a decreasing trend with some properties of non-linear system. When Gini coefficient increases from 0 to 0.4, ag- gregate consumptions declines very slightly, and with very small volatility. When Gini coefficient is beyond 0.4, with the deterioration in income inequality, the total consumption falls dramatically, and the volatility is also very high. But, as the Gini coefficient is close to 1, such a phenomenon is gradually weakened.

关 键 词：基尼系数 总消费 边际消费倾向 蒙特卡罗模拟 多项式回归 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]