坏消息业绩预告集中披露现象动因分析——基于归因理论视角  

The Reason Analysis of Bad news earnings forecast concentrated disclosure phenomenon-Based on The Perspective of Attribution Theory

作　　者：徐洪波[1] 

机构地区：[1]中央财经大学会计学院,北京100081

出　　处：《贵州财经大学学报》2014年第2期97-104,共8页Journal of Guizhou University of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：首先以A股上市公司2005—2012年各季度业绩预告消息属性作为研究对象,发现坏消息业绩预告存在集中公告现象。然后分行业选取样本,运用威布尔比例风险模型从归因理论视角对集中公告现象作出解释。研究结果发现:管理层披露坏消息业绩预告的时机选择受之前同行业发布坏消息业绩预告的公司数量影响,即近期同行业公司发布坏消息业绩预告数量越多,管理层越会迅速做出发布坏信息业绩预告的决策,从而形成坏消息业绩预告的集中公告效应,而好消息业绩预告不存在上述现象。Taking the quarterly Earnings Forecasts in Chinese A share listed companies from 2005 to 20012 for the study, We found that earnings forecast of bad news are concentrated announcement. Then select samples according to the industry, from the per- spective of attribution theory,we try to explain the announcement concentration phenomenon by using the Weibull proportion- al hazards model of survival analysis. The results found that： probability of bad news forecast announcement in a particular day and the number of peer companies that had released the negative profit forecast in advance are positively correlated, that is, the more peer companies disclosure it observed, the faster it will discloseits own. So the formation of bad news earnings forecast announcement concentration effect, but the good news earnings forecast does not exist the above phenomenon.

关 键 词：业绩预告 信息披露 集中公告 威布尔比例风险模型 

分 类 号：F276.6[经济管理—企业管理]