衰退期产品赊销动态决策优化模型及仿真  

Model and Simulation of Account Sale Dynamic Decision Optimization of Products in Their Declining Periods of Life

作　　者：孙庆文[1] 张志艳[1] 栾晓慧[1] 

机构地区：[1]河北经贸大学工商管理学院

出　　处：《管理学报》2014年第3期402-407,共6页Chinese Journal of Management

基　　金：河北省自然科学基金资助项目(G2013207004)

摘　　要：针对赊销活动,考虑商机灭失的可能性、不完全信息条件下有效信息获取量的测定以及赊销对总收益的影响等,建立了赊销收益模型,并结合最优停止规则,研究建立衰退期产品赊销动态决策优化模型。仿真结果显示,以上因素的考虑使得赊销的总体收益估测更加完善和切合实际,有助于企业掌握最佳的决策时机。Based on the possibility of the loss of business opportunities, the measurement of acqui- sition of effective information on the condition of incomplete information and account sales impact on total profits, this article establishes the model of account sale profits. Meanwhile, combining with the optimal stopping rule, the article studies and establishes dynamic decision optimization model of prod- ucts in their declining periods of life. The simulation results show that the total profit evaluations are more perfect and practical by taking account of the above factors, thus facilitates the grasping of the best decision time for enterprises.

关 键 词：不完全信息 赊销 收益估测 最优停时 动态决策 

分 类 号：C93[经济管理—管理学] F272.3