痢疾时空发病特征的统计分析与预测  

Statistical Analysis and Prediction of Dysentery's Temporal-Spatial Characteristics

作　　者：郑琰[1] 高强[2] 董平[2] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学数学学院,山东济南250100 [2]山东大学金融研究院,山东济南250100

出　　处：《齐鲁师范学院学报》2014年第1期92-101,共10页Journal of Qilu Normal University

基　　金：国家重大科学研究计划(2012CB955502)

摘　　要：本文以河南省痢疾数据为例,通过大量直观的图表与统计分析手段相结合的方式,分析了痢疾的时空发病特征,并得出了痢疾的时空发病特征是有气象因素的时空分布特点所决定的结论,并进行相关分析得到了影响痢疾发病的主要影响因素。对传统的疾病估计预测方法进行总结,进而提出了趋势分段法并归纳了常见流行病的发展趋势阶段及相应处理方法,以郑州为例证实了趋势分段法相比传统方法具有一定优势。对于各地市数据,使用面板回归方法分析其共性之处,并综合讨论了以上模型的应用。This paper used dysentery data of Henan Province as example, analyzed the temporal- spatial characteristics of dysentery by statistical methods and analyzed the main meteorological factors that influences the dysentery. The paper also estimated and summarized traditional methods for predicting disease, then put forward the trend segmentation method. Then the paper summarized the development trend of the epidemic and the corresponding stage of the common treatment methods and used the example of Zhengzhou to confirm the advantages of the trend segmentation method had when compared to traditional methods.Finally, as for the data in each country in Henan Province, this paper used panel regression method to analyze the similarities of them, and then comprehensively discussed the application of the above models.

关 键 词：时空发病特征 相关分析 趋势分段 面板回归 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学]