基于季节指数的四川省旅游季节性研究  

Study of Tourism Seasonality in Sichuan Province Based on Seasonality Indexes

作　　者：秦宏瑶[1,2] 唐勇[3] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学旅游学院,四川成都610064 [2]中国国际航空股份有限公司西南分公司,四川成都610000 [3]成都理工大学旅游与城乡规划学院,四川成都610059

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2014年第3期374-377,共4页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家留学基金(留金法[2011]5024号);成都理工大学中年科研骨干教师培养计划(编号:KYGG201313)

摘　　要：旅游季节性波动是旅游经济学研究的重要命题。选取四川省旅游总收入作为分析指标,采用年度季节强度指数(R)与月季指数(Zt)揭示旅游总收入的年度季节集中性与月度季节变化规律。结果显示,R值整体上呈逐年递增的趋势,指标随季节变化明显,且按一定规律分布;Zt值指示3月、6月、8月、9月、10月、12月为旅游旺季,其余月份为淡季。研究结论为四川旅游经济的淡旺季问题提供了基础数据,也为进一步合理修订全国节日放假办法提供了重要的科学决策依据。This paper investigated tourism seasonality in Sichuan Province by using seasonality intensity and seasonal decomposition. The annual concentration index of tourist revenue（R） revealed that seasonal concentration through the year saw a general ascending trend spanning from 2004 to 2012, and that was split into two halves by the dividing year of 2008. To look deeper, the seasonal decomposition explained the time serial by using monthly seasonal indices（Z, ）. As a result, the peak season went to March, June, August, September and October while the off- season failed on January, February, April, May, July and December. In conclusion, this paper implied that there were significant correlations between public festivals and holidays with seasonal variation of tourism indexes, and the findings with important policy implications would help us understanding the seasonal pattern in tourism along the year and mitigating the negative effects of tourism seasonality of the province in the future.

关 键 词：旅游季节性 时间序列模型 季节强度 季节分解 

分 类 号：F592.3[经济管理—旅游管理]