WAVEWATCH Ⅲ模式在渤海海浪预报的应用与检验  

Application and verification of sea wave forecast by WAVEWATCH Ⅲ model in the Bohai Sea of China

作　　者：李燕[1] 黄振[1] 张俊峰[1] 吴文杰 张彩凤[1] 赵钱飞[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连市气象局,辽宁大连116001 [2]庄河市气象局,辽宁庄河116400

出　　处：《气象与环境学报》2014年第1期23-29,共7页Journal of Meteorology and Environment

基　　金：中国气象局业务项目(320100S011C00)资助

摘　　要：大连黄海、渤海海浪数值预报系统采用WAVEWATCH III模式进行海浪预报,预报产品包括48 h内浪高、周期和浪向的逐3 h预报,并可对其进行检验。结果表明:WAVEWATCH III模式对渤海中部浪高模拟较好,浪高预报TS为71.7%,对近岸海区浪高模拟相对较差。个例检验表明,浪高最大值模拟较好,模拟浪高最大值出现的时间与实况基本吻合,浪高变化趋势预报也较好。WAVEWATCH III模式对两个周期个例进行检验,预报误差最低可达0.17 s,预报效果较好。Sea wave was forecasted by the WAVEWATCH Ⅲ model in the Yellow Sea and the Bohai Sea of Dalian. The products from the sea wave numerical forecast system include sea wave height,sea wave period and sea wave direction every three hours within 48 hours, and all were tested. The results indicate that the sea wave height could be simulated well by the WAVEWATCH Ⅲ model in the middle of the Bohai Sea and TS （Threat Score） of sea wave height reaches 71.7% ,while that is not well near the coast. The analysis of some cases shows that the maximum sea wave height and the trend of sea wave height could be simulated well. The occurrence time of the maximum sea wave height from the model agrees with that of the observation. Moreover, the simulated two sea wave period cases are tested, and the lowest error is 0. 17 s. The forecast effect of sea wave period by the WAVEWATCH Ⅲ model is good.

关 键 词：海浪预报 浪高 周期 

分 类 号：P731.33[天文地球—海洋科学]