随机阈值冲击模型金属化膜脉冲电容器可靠性分析  

Reliability analysis of metalized film pulse capacitors based on shock model with uncertain failure threshold

作　　者：李伟[1] 梁玉英[1] 潘刚[1] 张国龙[1] 

机构地区：[1]军械工程学院电子与光学工程系,石家庄050003

出　　处：《强激光与粒子束》2014年第2期253-258,共6页High Power Laser and Particle Beams

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(61271153);河北省重点基础研究项目(10963529D)

摘　　要：基于惯性约束聚变强激光装置中金属化膜脉冲电容器"自愈"的失效机理,提出了更为适合的冲击模型金属化膜脉冲电容器可靠性评估方法。现有的加速退化试验中,失效阈值往往是事先确定的,但考虑可靠性产品个体差异及环境影响的不同,这是不合理的,针对此问题提出了基于随机阈值的冲击模型金属化膜脉冲电容器退化建模的方法。由于模型过于复杂,采用MCMC方法进行参数估计。最后通过对电容器的仿真实验,将随机阈值下的评估结果与固定阈值的情况相对比,说明了该模型和方法的合理性,并进一步分析了不同的阈值分布均值和方差对产品可靠性的影响。According to the self-healing failure mechanisms of metallized film pulse capacitors in the inertial confinement fusion （ICF） laser device, a more appropriate reliability evaluation method based on shock model was proposed. In existing accelerated degradation test, failure threshold is often constant which is determined in advance, but this is unreasonable in considering individual differences of reliability products and different environmental impact. To solve this problem, the degradation modeling method based on the shock model with random threshold was proposed. Then we used Markov chain Monte Carlo （MCMC） method to estimate parameters. Finally, the random threshold of assessment was compared with fixed threshold, and the reason- ability of the proposed model and method was confirmed by simulation of metallized film capacitors. Further analysis shows that different threshold distribution mean values and variances have different influence on the reliability of products.

关 键 词：冲击模型 随机阈值 复合POISSON过程 金属化膜脉冲电容器 

分 类 号：TB114.3[理学—概率论与数理统计]