影响肾癌患者手术后生存因素的Cox模型分析  

Analysis of prognostic factors in renal cell carcinoma by Cox regression models

作　　者：米华[1] 李盛宽[1] 黄伟华[1] 甘俊常[1] 刘天长[1] 

机构地区：[1]广西医科大学附属第一医院泌尿外科,南宁530021

出　　处：《临床泌尿外科杂志》2001年第2期59-62,共4页Journal of Clinical Urology

摘　　要：目的 :探讨影响肾细胞癌患者预后的因素。方法 :运用 Cox模型对 10 4例肾细胞癌手术患者的预后进行单因素和多因素分析。结果 :影响肾细胞癌患者预后的因素有临床分期、根治性肾癌切除术、血尿和术前肾动脉栓塞。据此建立肾细胞癌术后生存预测方程 :h(t,X) =ho(t) exp(1.6 35 9X6 - 1.44 73X1 0 - 1.0 146 X1 6 +0 .985 4X1 9) ,运用此方程对生存 5年以上及生存不足 5年而死亡的 5 1例肾细胞癌手术患者的预后进行预测 ,并将预测结果与随访的实际结果进行比较 ,其灵敏度、特异度及符合率分别为 73.3%、83.3%和 80 .4% ,两者基本相符。结论 :根治性肾癌切除术和术前肾动脉栓塞是影响肾细胞癌患者预后的保护因子 ,能延长生存时间 ;临床分期和血尿为危险因子 ,可缩短生存时间。Purpose:To investigate the main prognostic factors of patients with renal cell carcinoma.Methods:104 cases of patients with postoperative renal cell carcinoma were analyzed by Cox regression models.Results:Four factors showed significant relation to prognosis: clinical stage, radical nephrectomy for renal cell carcinoma, hematuria, embolization of renal artery. A predicting equation was established, and the predicting values were calculated according to the individual features of patients. The predicting and actual values were compared, and the sensitivity, specificity and overall concordance were 73.3 %, 83.3 %, and 80.4 % respectively.Conclusions:Radical nephrectomy for renal cell carcinoma and embolization of renal artery were protective factors of renal cell carcinoma and the clinical stage and hematuria were risky factors.

关 键 词：肾肿瘤 预后 COX模型 影响因素 

分 类 号：R737.11[医药卫生—肿瘤] R730.7[医药卫生—临床医学]