ARIMA-MC组合模型在大坝变形安全监测中的应用  

Application of ARIMA-MC Model in Monitoring Dam Deformation

作　　者：沈寿亮 姜彦作 宋锦焘[1] 刘天祥[1] 梁睿斌 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水利水电学院,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2014年第3期106-109,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51179066;51139001);新世纪优秀人才支持计划(NCET-10-0359);江苏省杰出青年基金(BK2012036);水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201301061;201201038);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(水利工程)(YS11001)

摘　　要：为及时了解大坝的安全状况,在坝体变形监测资料往往不平稳的基础上,建立了ARIMA预测模型,通过马尔科夫链预测了ARIMA模型的误差,从而修正了模型的预测值,建立了ARIMA-MC组合模型,并结合实测数据验证了此组合模型的有效性。结果表明,ARIMA-MC组合模型预测精度高,具有较好的实用性。It is of great importance to analyze the dam deformation and establish the deformation monitoring model for knowing the safety situation of the dams timely. Since the deformation datum of the dams are often not steady, the traditional ARMA model can not deal with the non-steady datum well, ARIMA model was established. By predicting the error of the ARIMA model with Markov chain and modifying the predicted values, the ARIMA-MC model was established. Comparison of predicted datum and measured values, the results indicate that the ARIMA MC model has higher accuracy and better practicability.

关 键 词：大坝变形 预测 马尔科夫链 ARIMA模型 

分 类 号：TV698.1[水利工程—水利水电工程]