市场培育期内机场巴士服务可靠性对机场市场份额的影响  

Influence of airport coach service reliability on airport market share during market cultivation period

作　　者：杨忠振[1] 陆婧[1] 暴虹利 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输管理学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《交通运输工程学报》2014年第1期84-89,96,共7页Journal of Traffic and Transportation Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51078049);教育部人文社会科学研究项目(09YJA790021)

摘　　要：基于累积前景理论，分析了乘客对机场的选择行为习惯。根据习惯衰减原理，得到乘客对机场的选择行为变化过程。根据市场培育期内所有乘客的选择行为变化过程，得到机场巴士服务实施后机场市场份额的增长曲线。以无锡市2006～2009年航空出行数据为例，分析了市场培育期内机场巴士服务可靠性对机场市场份额的影响。分析结果表明：当开通南京禄1=7国际机场巴士后，在选择上海浦东国际机场的乘客中，习惯强度为0．52的乘客在机场巴士开通后需经历8次以上的出行逐渐转为选择南京禄口国际机场出行；南京禄口国际机场的市场份额经历26个月的市场培育期才达到平稳值；当机场巴士运行时间的波动幅度由±15min降低至±5min时，南京禄口国际机场的市场培育期缩短12％；当运行时间的波动幅度由±15min上升至±25min时，市场占有率一直在20％上下波动。南京禄口国际机场提供新服务的效果不能即刻出现，而是随时间逐渐显现出来，提高机场巴士的可靠性，市场占有率才可能逐渐上升。Based on the cumulative prospect theory, the choice behavior habit of passenger on airport was analyzed. According to the habit damping rule, the change process of choice behavior for passenger on airport was gotten. According to the change process of choice behaviors for all passengers during market cultivation period, the increase curve of market share was gotten after the airport coach service was carried out. The air trip data of Wuxi City in 2006-2009 were taken as an example, the influence of airport coach service reliability on airport market share during market cultivation period was analyzed. Analysis result indicates that after airport coach from Nanjing Lukou International Airport runs, the passengers who choose Shanghai Pudong International Airport will change to choose Nanjing Lukou International Airport after experiencing more than 8 trips when the choice habit strength equals to 0.52. The market share of Nanjing Lukou International Airport reaches the stationary value after the cultivation period of 26 months. When the fluctuation range of running time for airport coach decreases from ±15 to ±5 min, the market cultivation period for Nanjing Lukou International Airport will reduce by 12 percent, when the the fluctuation range increases from ＋15 rain to ± 25 rain, the market share is around 20 percent. The effects of new service from Nanjing Lukou International Airport will not show immediately but gradually appear with time. The market share will increase as the reliability of airport coach increases. 2 tabs, 7 figs, 21 refs.

关 键 词：交通规划 市场培育期 市场份额 累积前景理论 选择习惯 行为模拟 

分 类 号：U492.43[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]